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MLB · TOR @ SD · 4:10 PM ET·
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Total Bases 1.5 · TOR · @ SD · Blue Jays at Padres
STRONG
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Total Bases 1.5 · TOR · @ SD · Blue Jays at Padres
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | +1002.00 | -1301.77 |
| DK | 1.5 | +1032.03 | -1361.74 |
| DK | 1.5 | -1031.97 | -1301.77 |
| MGM | 1.5 | +1102.10 | -1501.67 |
| DK | 1.5 | +1052.05 | -1351.74 |
| DK★ Best | 1.5 | -1091.92 |
This scores 75: it earned 45 of 45 for expected value at this price, but no external sharp book (Kalshi / Polymarket) backs this side, it failed our edge test.
Components sum to 50; capped to 75 by a tier rule (score clamp).
Weights: EV 45 · Sharp 25 · Consensus 20 · Confidence 10 · Kill signals -12 each. Clamped 0-100. Tiers: 90+ PRESS, 75-89 STRONG, 60-74 LEAN, 50-59 WATCH, <50 PASS.
Note: the Sharp component only credits an external anchor (Kalshi / Polymarket), which player props do not have, so a prop scores 0 of 25 there no matter how good it is. That is a known flaw in this version of the score, not a judgement about this play. Read the Confidence panel above for the number that actually grades this card against its price.
Buy this under up to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake instead of losing (14% of outcomes), same win chance as the 1.5.
| Line | Win | Push | Loss | Price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% | 26% | 33% | -124 fair | - |
| 1.5nowbest EV | 67% | - | 33% | -110 | +27.7% |
| 2 |
Across 28 replayed days of MLB, this market moves 1.3pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 17% of the time (mean 0.13 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 1851 players quoting batter_total_bases, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Graded off the ESPN box score. No cherry-picking, no removed losses.
| -1101.91 |
| 67% |
| 14% |
| 19% |
| -356 fair |
| - |
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 53% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At -110 the price needs 52% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 1.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 52% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.