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BET DATA LABS
THE SCORECARD · RECOMMENDED PLAYS
RSS · Graded feed

The Scorecard.

How the record is counted

Headline numbers count only the plays Bet Data Labs tells you to bet, sized the way it tells you to bet them. PRESS is 2u, STRONG is 1u, LEAN is a half unit. WATCH and PASS are track-only, so they risk 0u and never move the record. ROI = staked net units / staked risk.

Raw published sample (every card, flat 1u, no weighting): 16137 cards, -712.73u, -4.7% ROI. CLV = how much better the price we published was than that same line's closing price at the book. Beating the close is the leading indicator the record is skill, not variance. We only count CLV against a real market price. When a card has no Kalshi or Polymarket market, its anchor is Bet Data Labs' own baseline, and our model agreeing with our model is not closing line value, so it is not scored as any.

★ DAILY P/L · LAST 30 DAYS

Cumulative +1.93u

Best +4.19uWorst -3.75u
2026-09-14: +0.00u2026-09-15: +0.00u2026-09-16: +0.00u2026-09-17: +0.45u2026-09-18: +0.45u2026-09-19: +0.45u2026-09-20: +0.45u2026-09-21: +0.00u2026-09-22: +0.00u2026-09-23: +0.00u2026-09-24: +0.00u2026-09-25: +0.45u2026-09-26: -0.50u2026-09-27: +0.00u2026-09-29: +0.00u2026-09-30: +0.00u2026-10-01: +0.00u2026-10-02: +0.00u2026-10-03: +0.00u2026-10-04: +0.00u2026-10-05: -1.62u2026-10-06: -1.02u2026-10-07: +0.02u2026-10-08: -3.16u2026-10-09: +1.34u2026-10-10: -3.75u2026-10-11: +0.28u2026-10-12: +3.31u2026-10-13: +4.19u2026-10-14: +0.56u
Green day Red day Cumulative· Hover a bar for date + units · Click for that slate
★ HIT RATE BY TIER · CALIBRATION AUDIT

Best tier PRESS +13.5 pts

Wins / decided (pushes, voids and pending excluded). Bars are hit rate. The tick on each bar is the rate that tier's own prices need, so green means it beat what it paid, not that it beat a coin flip.

PRESSPRESS: 63.6% hit rate over 11 decided cards. Its prices need 50.1%, so +13.5 pts vs the price paid.50%63.6% · n=11STRONGSTRONG: 65.9% hit rate over 85 decided cards. Its prices need 62.9%, so +3.0 pts vs the price paid.63%65.9% · n=85LEANLEAN: 65.4% hit rate over 321 decided cards. Its prices need 64.6%, so +0.9 pts vs the price paid.65%65.4% · n=321WATCHWATCH: 70.5% hit rate over 2595 decided cards. Its prices need 72.5%, so -2.0 pts vs the price paid.73%70.5% · n=2595PASSPASS: 48.8% hit rate over 12266 decided cards. Its prices need 51.4%, so -2.6 pts vs the price paid.51%48.8% · n=12266
Beat its price Missed its price Breakeven for that tier· Hover a bar for count, hit rate and margin
★ AVG PRICE CLV BY TIER · SHARPNESS AUDIT

Best tier WATCH +1.19%

How much better our published price was than that line's closing price, on average, per tier. Positive = we beat the close. Grouped over all graded cards whose entry and close sat on the same line.

PRESSPRESS: -3.18% avg price CLV over 2 cards-3.18% · n=2STRONGSTRONG: +0.04% avg price CLV over 89 cards+0.04% · n=89LEANLEAN: +0.15% avg price CLV over 289 cards+0.15% · n=289WATCHWATCH: +1.19% avg price CLV over 2529 cards+1.19% · n=2529PASSPASS: -0.13% avg price CLV over 9199 cards-0.13% · n=9199
Beat the close Close beat us· Hover a bar for count + tier average
★ PRICE CLV TREND · LAST 33 GRADED DAYS

Avg +0.15% ▼ -0.27%

Daily average of how much better our published price was than that same line's closing price at the book. The arrow compares the recent third of days to the earliest third. Up means we are getting our number earlier.

+2.20.0-2.22026-07-12: -0.16% avg price CLV over 47 cards07/122026-07-13: +1.95% avg price CLV over 20 cards2026-07-15: +2.24% avg price CLV over 5 cards2026-07-16: +0.12% avg price CLV over 76 cards2026-07-18: +0.07% avg price CLV over 334 cards07/182026-07-19: +0.00% avg price CLV over 1 cards2026-07-20: +0.81% avg price CLV over 97 cards2026-07-21: -0.13% avg price CLV over 288 cards2026-07-22: +0.00% avg price CLV over 12 cards07/222026-07-24: -0.14% avg price CLV over 302 cards2026-07-25: -0.42% avg price CLV over 278 cards2026-07-26: +0.02% avg price CLV over 226 cards2026-07-28: +0.19% avg price CLV over 540 cards07/282026-07-29: -0.11% avg price CLV over 170 cards2026-08-30: +0.00% avg price CLV over 2 cards2026-09-02: -0.02% avg price CLV over 25 cards2026-09-03: +0.00% avg price CLV over 5 cards09/032026-09-05: +0.00% avg price CLV over 11 cards2026-09-08: +0.00% avg price CLV over 13 cards2026-09-17: +0.00% avg price CLV over 7 cards2026-09-27: +0.00% avg price CLV over 1 cards09/272026-09-29: +0.00% avg price CLV over 7 cards2026-10-04: +0.00% avg price CLV over 5 cards2026-10-05: -0.78% avg price CLV over 57 cards2026-10-06: +0.18% avg price CLV over 876 cards10/062026-10-07: +0.11% avg price CLV over 921 cards2026-10-08: +0.40% avg price CLV over 1073 cards2026-10-09: -0.34% avg price CLV over 639 cards2026-10-10: +0.01% avg price CLV over 1912 cards10/102026-10-11: -0.86% avg price CLV over 1414 cards2026-10-12: +0.59% avg price CLV over 702 cards2026-10-13: +1.02% avg price CLV over 1405 cards2026-10-14: +1.08% avg price CLV over 637 cards10/14
Beat the close Close beat us Daily avg· Dot size scales with that day's sample · Hover for detail
Recommended Bets
450
65.5%
+11.50u
ROI (staked)
+4.3%
+0.11%
Recommended Bets
A bet we are actually making, at a price we have named in advance.
The share of bets that won, out of the ones that have already been settled.
A standard bet size, so results compare cleanly no matter what anyone actually stakes.
How much better the price we published was than the closing price at the same sportsbook.
Hit rate 65.5% vs the 63.8% the prices we actually published demand: +1.6 pts clear of the .Accuracy without price is a marketing stat, so both numbers sit in the same row. The bar is the mean breakeven of the 415 decided prices, not a flat -110 assumption. Those prices are not uniform (they run 25.3% to 82.5%), which is why a fixed baseline flatters juiced markets and buries plus-money ones.

By Tier

TierStakeBetsUnitsROI
Tier
How much we trust a bet, in one word, from the ones we press hardest down to the ones we only watch.
Stake
A standard bet size, so results compare cleanly no matter what anyone actually stakes.
Bets
A bet we are actually making, at a price we have named in advance.
PRESS2u11+4.6u+20.7%
STRONG1u93+4.0u+4.7%
LEAN0.5u346+2.9u+1.8%
WATCHskip26930.0u-
PASSskip129940.0u-

By Sport

SportW-LHit / NeedsUnitsROI
MLB119-5070% / 60%+22.6u+17.3%
WNBA7-370% / 61%+1.0u+17.3%
NFL13-1350% / 57%-2.3u-15.4%
NHL130-7563% / 69%-11.9u-10.5%
SOCCERthin4-357% / 39%+2.2u+62.4%

Hit / Needs is this row's win rate against the win rate its own prices demand. Green means it cleared the price it was taken at. Rows under 10 decided plays are dimmed and ranked last. Too small a sample to trust the ROI.

By Market

MarketW-LHit / NeedsUnitsROI
Total Bases79-2576% / 63%+14.0u+17.0%
Run Line17-1063% / 52%+6.6u+31.6%
Moneyline16-867% / 54%+3.2u+15.9%
Goals64-2076% / 73%+1.7u+4.0%
Spread26-1859% / 64%-4.6u-14.0%
Assists41-3753% / 67%-8.8u-22.6%
Moneyline (3-way)thin2-167% / 30%+2.3u+151.7%
Hits + Runs + RBIsthin7-188% / 60%+1.7u+43.2%
Reb + Astthin2-0100% / 58%+1.1u+73.5%
Kicking Pointsthin2-0100% / 53%+1.0u+67.3%
3-PT Madethin4-180% / 68%+0.4u+17.1%
Game Totalthin2-167% / 52%+0.4u+27.3%
Passing TDsthin5-363% / 63%+0.4u+8.2%
Reboundsthin1-150% / 56%-0.1u-7.6%
Rush Attemptsthin1-150% / 54%-0.1u-11.2%
Receptionsthin0-10% / 60%-0.5u-100.0%
Drawthin0-10% / 25%-0.5u-100.0%
Shots on Goalthin1-233% / 65%-0.7u-48.9%
Pointsthin0-20% / 58%-1.0u-100.0%
Tackles + Assiststhin3-538% / 55%-2.0u-44.1%
Strikeoutsthin0-60% / 54%-3.0u-100.0%

Hit / Needs is this row's win rate against the win rate its own prices demand. Green means it cleared the price it was taken at. Rows under 10 decided plays are dimmed and ranked last. Too small a sample to trust the ROI.

Recent grades

DateRec BetsW-L-PUnits (staked)ROIAvg CLV
2026-10-144012-6-0+0.56u+4.5%-0.17 pts
2026-10-134333-9-0+4.19u+16.8%-0.37 pts
2026-10-124632-13-0+3.31u+12.5%+0.23 pts
2026-10-112717-9-1+0.28u+1.9%-0.39 pts
2026-10-105530-23-1-3.75u-11.9%+1.56 pts
2026-10-092921-7-0+1.34u+7.9%-0.19 pts
2026-10-083524-11-0-3.16u-15.1%+0.10 pts
2026-10-075335-17-0+0.02u+0.1%+0.11 pts
2026-10-063922-16-0-1.02u-3.9%-0.20 pts
2026-10-0573-3-0-1.62u-29.4%-0.20 pts
2026-09-2610-1-0-0.50u-100.0%n/a
2026-09-2511-0-0+0.45u+90.9%n/a
2026-09-2011-0-0+0.45u+90.9%n/a
2026-09-1911-0-0+0.45u+90.9%n/a
2026-09-1811-0-0+0.45u+90.9%n/a
2026-09-1711-0-0+0.45u+90.9%n/a
2026-09-1011-0-0+0.45u+90.9%n/a
2026-09-0911-0-0+0.45u+90.9%n/a
2026-09-0821-1-0-0.05u-4.5%+0.00 pts
2026-09-0411-0-0+0.45u+90.9%n/a
2026-09-0310-1-0-0.50u-100.0%+0.00 pts
2026-09-0221-0-0+0.45u+90.9%+0.00 pts
2026-09-0151-4-0-1.60u-64.0%n/a
2026-07-2973-3-0+0.03u+0.8%-0.44 pts
2026-07-2811-0-0+0.68u+136.0%n/a
2026-07-2711-0-0+0.52u+104.0%n/a
2026-07-2622-0-0+2.22u+88.6%+0.00 pts
2026-07-2532-1-0+1.45u+48.4%n/a
2026-07-2420-2-0-1.00u-100.0%-6.88 pts
2026-07-2295-4-0-1.74u-19.4%n/a
2026-07-2010-1-0-0.50u-100.0%n/a
2026-07-1996-3-0+5.19u+43.3%n/a
2026-07-18116-5-0+0.85u+14.1%-0.96 pts
2026-07-1710-1-0-0.50u-100.0%n/a
2026-07-1521-1-0+0.52u+52.5%+0.00 pts
2026-07-1411-0-0+0.45u+90.9%n/a
2026-07-1275-2-0+1.73u+43.2%n/a

26 graded days with no recommended plays not shown.

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Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.