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BET DATA LABS
The Slate · Plays of the day

Tonight's Slate

Ranked by confidence, top to bottom. More

Selected from PRESS and STRONG cards only, sized on quarter-Kelly, capped at 8 units of total daily exposure. Price-gate every fire: a right side at a wrong number is still a bad bet.

Generated 5:24 PM ET · 1u = $100
FRESHUpdated 0s ago
: A price written as what one dollar pays back in total, staked dollar included, so 2.50 hands back two dollars fifty. : The worst price we are willing to take on a bet. Past it we do not want the bet at all. : How much better a price is than what we think it should be, measured in percentage points. : A standard bet size, so results compare cleanly no matter what anyone actually stakes.
01
STRONGNHLScore 82
Kraken at Lightning·7:00 PM ET·

Kraken

Spread +1.5
· FANATICS
1.91(-110)
1.80
Don't bet worse than this
· Model
+5.7pp55.9% win
1.25u$125
$125 to win $114 · 1u = $100
SEA +1.5 spread at -110 on FANATICS
STRONG · quarter-Kelly 1.25u
02
STRONGNHLScore 75
Bruins at Ducks·10:00 PM ET·

Ducks

Spread +1.5
· DK
1.42(-238)
1.36
Don't bet worse than this
· Model
+6.6pp74.1% win
1.25u$125
$125 to win $52.52 · 1u = $100
ANA +1.5 spread at -238 on DK
STRONG · quarter-Kelly 1.25u
03
LEANNHLScore 72
Sabres at Maple Leafs·7:00 PM ET·

Sabres

Spread +1.5
· FD
1.43(-235)
1.37
Don't bet worse than this
· Model
+5.6pp73.3% win
0.63u$63
$62.50 to win $26.60 · 1u = $100
BUF +1.5 spread at -235 on FD
LEAN · rides reduced (half-Kelly, 0.63u)
Plays
4
0 / 2
3.56u
Total wager
$356
Potential win
$221
Plays: A bet we are actually making, at a price we have named in advance. : How much we trust a bet, in one word, from the ones we press hardest down to the ones we only watch. : A standard bet size, so results compare cleanly no matter what anyone actually stakes.
75·Sports NHL, NFL·Risk/reward 62%
HOW THE SLATE IS BUILT

Every card is scored, tiered, and Kelly-sized before it reaches this page. The Slate keeps only PRESS and STRONG tiers with a full-Kelly floor of 0.75u, drops any card carrying a kill signal or the board's top-edge fade, then caps the set at 3 per sport and 8 total. Sizing is quarter-Kelly with a 0.25u floor and 3u ceiling, and the whole set is scaled down if the sum would breach the 8u daily exposure cap. 1 unit = $100. Every price is decimal first with the American in parens, and every play carries a gate: the decimal below which the model edge is under 1%.

★ THE SLATE'S RECEIPTS

Slate-only P/L

W1Last graded Oct 12 →
Last 7 days
-1.83u
-10.7% ROI
Hit rate54%
Record7-6-1
Plays17
Wagered17.0u
3 pending grade
Last 30 days
-6.07u
-26.0% ROI
Hit rate44%
Record8-10-1
Plays22
Wagered23.3u
3 pending grade
All time
-5.58u
-16.8% ROI
Hit rate46%
Record11-13-1
Plays35
Wagered33.2u
10 pending grade
★ Biggest green dayOct 12 · +1.96u◆ Biggest red dayOct 10 · -3.75u
◆ ALSO CONSIDERED

Cards ranked one nudge from the Slate

5 near-misses
0179%needs 71%
NHL·NYR @ NJ
Pavel DorofeyevGoals
UNDER 0.5·-250·+12.7pp·74
Score just below STRONG
LEAN tier but Alpha Score 74 - one confirmation away from STRONG
→ Watch for a sharp anchor move or a second book confirming the line
0280%needs 76%
NHL·PHI @ DET
Jamie DrysdaleAssists
UNDER 0.5·-310·+10.2pp·74
Score just below STRONG
LEAN tier but Alpha Score 74 - one confirmation away from STRONG
→ Watch for a sharp anchor move or a second book confirming the line
0380%needs 74%
NHL·PHI @ DET
Matvei MichkovAssists
UNDER 0.5·-285·+12.0pp·74
Score just below STRONG
LEAN tier but Alpha Score 74 - one confirmation away from STRONG
→ Watch for a sharp anchor move or a second book confirming the line
0461%needs 56%
NHL·PIT @ COL
PenguinsSpread
PIT +1.5·-128·+7.1pp·74
Score just below STRONG
LEAN tier but Alpha Score 74 - one confirmation away from STRONG
→ Watch for a sharp anchor move or a second book confirming the line
0570%needs 62%
NHL·CGY @ VGK
Shea TheodoreAssists
UNDER 0.5·-160·+13.0pp·74
Score just below STRONG
LEAN tier but Alpha Score 74 - one confirmation away from STRONG
→ Watch for a sharp anchor move or a second book confirming the line

Near-miss cards are not published plays. They're shown so followers can see the model's thinking behind the sizing floor and the kill-signal gates.

Show why 7 cards were skipped
  • ·Same-game cap: read 3 of 57 on this game (reads past the 2nd went 22-43 in July)
  • ·Same-game cap: read 3 of 49 on this game (reads past the 2nd went 22-43 in July)
  • ·Pattern register: Prop at -218 breaches the -160 heavy-juice bar (stacked-juice lane 0-5)
  • ·Pattern register: Prop at -206 breaches the -160 heavy-juice bar (stacked-juice lane 0-5)
  • ·Pattern register: Prop at -183 breaches the -160 heavy-juice bar (stacked-juice lane 0-5)
  • ·Pattern register: Prop at -197 breaches the -160 heavy-juice bar (stacked-juice lane 0-5)
  • ·Sport cap: NHL already has 3

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