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WNBA · GS @ IND · 8:00 PM ET·
Caitlin Clark
Points 16.5 · IND · vs GS · Valkyries at Fever
LEAN
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Points 16.5 · IND · vs GS · Valkyries at Fever
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 15.5 | -1191.84 | -1111.90 |
| FD | 15.5 | -1151.87 | -1131.88 |
| DK | 15.5 | -1221.82 | -1091.92 |
| DK | 14.5 | -1371.73 | -1101.91 |
| DK | 15.5 | -1081.93 | -1101.91 |
| DK★ Best | 16.5 | +1182.18 |
Even at the low end of our projection this still beats the price. The whole range is profitable.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +118 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
This scores 65: it earned 45 of 45 for expected value at this price and 20 of 20 for clearing the edge test, but no external sharp book (Kalshi / Polymarket) backs this side.
Weights: EV 45 · Sharp 25 · Consensus 20 · Confidence 10 · Kill signals -12 each. Clamped 0-100. Tiers: 90+ PRESS, 75-89 STRONG, 60-74 LEAN, 50-59 WATCH, <50 PASS.
Note: the Sharp component only credits an external anchor (Kalshi / Polymarket), which player props do not have, so a prop scores 0 of 25 there no matter how good it is. That is a known flaw in this version of the score, not a judgement about this play. Read the Confidence panel above for the number that actually grades this card against its price.
Buy this over down to 16: an exact 16 returns your stake instead of losing (4% of outcomes), same win chance as the 16.5.
| Line | Win | Push | Loss | Price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.5tighten | 74% | - | 26% | -137 | +27.2% |
| 15.5 | 70% | - | 30% | -108 | +34.4% |
Graded off the ESPN box score. No cherry-picking, no removed losses.
| -1101.91 |
| 16push-safe |
| 66% |
| 4% |
| 30% |
| -217 fair |
| - |
| 16.5nowbest EV | 66% | - | 34% | +118 | +43.3% |
| 17 | 61% | 4% | 34% | -179 fair | - |
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 47% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At +118 the price needs 46% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 16.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 46% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.