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Jamien Sherwood · Tackles + Assists · Bet Data Labs
Tackles + Assists 7.5 · NYJ · vs CLE · Browns at Jets
4 games this season, 17 games last season, 50% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
7.5
UNDER
7.5
Our win %
52%
Market %
47%
Diff
+15.3%
Market
Tackles + Assists 7.5
DK
+100
2.00
Projection8.7vs7.5(+15%)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
SZN
57%
12/21
H2H
0%
0/1
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
3.9%
Alpha Score
6
Recommended
0.97u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
K 3.88u
◆Best lineBuy down to 7: an exact 7 returns your stake (9% push)
Why this card
›Tackles + Assists projection 8.7 vs line 7.5
›Model read P(over) 61% sits 14pp off the market. Tackles + Assists has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: books are not quoting the same number, so there is no single line to price against.
›Prop market fair P(over) 47% across 1 book
›Injury kill: NYJ has 6 OUT
›Opponent CLE missing 7, context on this card and not a knock against it
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ NYJ has 6 OUT
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 7.5)46.9%
Fair price+113 · 2.13
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/11, 12:52 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line8.65 vs 7.5
4 games this season, 17 games last season, 50% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games21
Current games4
Prior games17
Prior games fetched17
›All model inputs (19)
Variance3.65
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
7.5
+1002.00
-1301.77
DK implied, with vig (this side): 50.0%
Confidence readOn the fence
52% to hitrange 41-62%price needs 50%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +100 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 6?
TOTAL
6/100
Win prob+20.8/ 55
Calibrated win probability 52%
Market+-9.2/ 15
Market consensus leans against us (47% our side)
Price+9.7/ 15
3.9% EV at best price
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Components sum to 21; published as 6 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Graded off the ESPN box score. No cherry-picking, no removed losses.
Outcome
LOSS
Actual
4
line 7.5
Units
-1.00u
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propTACKLES_ASSISTS
games21
current_games4
prior_games17
prior_games_fetched17
current_mean7.75
prior_mean9.06
current_weight0.500
role_shift0
variance_floor2
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4361331
season2026
8
51%
9%
39%
-131 fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 47% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Judkins (foot) was present for Thursday's practice but didn't participate in stretching or individual drills during the portion of practice open to the media, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Tytus HowardQ
Howard (knee) did not participate at the Browns' practice Wednesday.
Grant DelpitQ
questionable
Maliek CollinsQ
questionable
Derek BarnettQ
questionable
Mike Hall Jr.Q
questionable
Teven JenkinsQ
questionable
Other · 12
Dylan Sampson?
Sampson (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice.
Elgton Jenkins?
Audric Estime?
The Browns signed Estime to the 53-man roster Tuesday.
Raheim Sanders?
The Browns placed Sanders (hip) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Jerry Jeudy?
Jeudy hauled in three of seven targets for 19 yards during Sunday's 17-12 loss against the Jets.
Taylen Green?
Parker Brailsford?
Andre Szmyt?
Szmyt made both of his field-goal attempts but missed his lone extra-point try during Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets on Sunday.
Deshaun Watson?
Watson completed 15 of 33 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown while rushing six times for 40 yards in Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets. He also lost a fumble.
Harold Fannin Jr.?
Fannin caught one of four targets for four yards in Sunday's 17-12 loss to the Jets.
Kalia Davis?
Davis (quadriceps) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets, Kelsey Russo of the Browns' official site reports.
Dillon Gabriel?
Gabriel (back) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Jets, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
NYJ
Questionable / DTD · 6
Adonai MitchellD
Mitchell (finger) didn't practice Thursday.
Kenyon SadiqQ
Sadiq (concussion) remained limited at Thursday's practice.
Breece HallD
Hall (quadriceps) wasn't taking part in practice but was spotted working out on a side field with trainers Thursday, Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic reports.
Dylan ParhamD
Coach Aaron Glenn said Wednesday that Parham (knee) is still week-to-week as the Jets start preparing for Week 6, Antwan V. Staley of the New York Daily News reports.
Joseph OssaiD
Ossai (ankle) was estimated to be a nonparticipant at Wednesday's walkthrough, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com reports.
Dane BeltonQ
questionable
Other · 19
Omar Cooper Jr.?
Cooper (ankle) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice.
Kiko Mauigoa?
Mauigoa (quadriceps) was estimated as a full participant on the Jets' official injury report Wednesday.
Isaiah Davis?
Davis rushed twice for eight yards while catching one of two targets for nine yards during Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Nate Lynn?
Nahshon Wright?
Jason Sanders?
Sanders made his lone field-goal attempt and both of his extra-point tries during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
David Bailey?
Bailey recorded seven tackles (five solo), including 3.0 sacks, during the Jets' 17-12 win over the Browns on Sunday.
Isaiah Williams?
Williams caught one of two targets for 16 yards and added a three-yard carry in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns. He also had a 26-yard kickoff return and netted 67 yards on four punt returns.
Geno Smith?
Smith completed 17 of 30 pass attempts for 182 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns. He also rushed five times for seven yards and lost a fumble.
Braelon Allen?
Allen rushed 24 times for 116 yards and a touchdown while catching one of four targets for no gain in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Garrett Wilson?
Wilson caught seven of 11 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 17-12 win over the Browns.
Kingsley Enagbare?
Enagbare (knee) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Will McDonald IV?
McDonald (calf) is active for Sunday's game against the Browns.
Tim Patrick?
The Jets activated Patrick (groin) from injured reserve Saturday.
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.?
Brownlee (concussion) does not have an injury designation ahead of Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Mason Taylor?
Taylor (thumb) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Browns, Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com reports.
Jamien Sherwood?
Sherwood finished with 13 total tackles (five solo) and one forced fumble in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Demario Davis?
Davis ended with 10 total tackles (five solo) and 1.0 sacks in Sunday's 23-12 loss to Chicago.
Braiden McGregor?
McGregor (pectoral) was placed on the Jets' injured reserve list Wednesday, Eric Allen of the team's official site reports.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYCLE
3-2
L103-2
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff-19.0
HOMENYJ
2-3
L102-3
StreakW1
Home0-0
Run diff-3.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
★ RECENT FORM
Jamien Sherwood · Tackles + Assists vs 7.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 over · avg 7.0
LAST 10
40%
2/5 over · avg 7.0
SEASON
40%
2/5 over · avg 7.0
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At +100 the price needs 50% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Jamien Sherwood · Tackles + Assists vs 7.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
40%2/5 over
Oct 11vsCLEW4Miss
Oct 4@CHIL13Hit
Sep 27@DETL8Hit
Sep 20vsGBL6Miss
Sep 13@TENW4Miss
Jan 4@BUFL7Miss
Dec 28vsNEL7Miss
Dec 21@NOL11Hit
Dec 14@JAXL8Hit
Dec 7vsMIAL15Hit
Nov 30vsATLW4Miss
Nov 23@BALL13Hit
Nov 14@NEL8Hit
Nov 9vsCLEW6Miss
Oct 26@CINW5Miss
Oct 19vsCARL10Hit
Oct 12vsDENL13Hit
Oct 5vsDALL7Miss
Sep 29@MIAL10Hit
Sep 21@TBL11Hit
Sep 14vsBUFL13Hit
Sep 7vsPITL6Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 7.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 50% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
