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NFL · SEA @ DEN · 8:15 PM ET·
George Holani
Anytime TD 0.5 · SEA · @ DEN · Seahawks at Broncos
PASS
YES
0.5
NO
0.5
Our win %
12%
Market %
15%
Diff
-93.2%
Market
Anytime TD 0.5
FD
+550
6.50
Projection0.0vs0.5(-93%)
L5
0%
0/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
6%
1/18
SZN
6%
1/18
H2H
-
ACC
22%
n=9727
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL anytime td plays: 22% of 9727 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL anytime td) hit 22.0% over 9,727 graded cards, 9,708 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Edge
-2.5pp
EV
-19.3%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 8-2 on Holani
Why this card
- ›Anytime TD model P(scores) 3% from 0.03 TD per game over 18 games, priced P(yes) 12%
- ›Model read P(yes) 3% sits 12pp off the market. Anytime TD has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
- ›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.5 gap is inside the model's own error bar.
- ›Prop market fair P(yes) 15% across 7 books (one-sided market, 20% hold removed)
- ›Calibration: NFL Anytime TD plays predicted ~20% have hit 22% over 9727 graded, of which 4873 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 2.5pp.
- ›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
KILL SIGNALS
- ⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 9727 NFL anytime td cards. The model predicted 20% on average and they hit 22%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 4873 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was raised 2.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceDe-vigged book market
Implied P(over 0.5)14.9%
Fair price+569 · 6.69
Books de-vigged7
Pulled10/15, 5:28 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 7 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.03 vs 0.5
Median0.03
Variance0.43
Modelnfl-atd-v0.1-poisson-two-season
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
current_games5
prior_games13
prior_games_fetched13
current_mean0
prior_mean0.077
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
opp_adj1
games18
modelpoisson-at-least-one
lambda0.034
player_espn_id4429835
season2026
Market lines
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 0.5 | +5006.00 | 01.00 |
| FD★ Best | 0.5 | +5506.50 | 01.00 |
| FANATICS | 0.5 | +5006.00 | 01.00 |
FD implied, with vig (this side): 15.4%
Confidence readOn the fence
12% to hitrange 8-17%price needs 15%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +550 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+0/ 55
Calibrated win probability 12%
Market+-10/ 15
Market consensus leans against us (15% our side)
Price+-10/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Prop weights: calibrated win probability 55 · market consensus 15 · price 15 · edge test 15 · kill signals -8 then -5 each. Clamped 0-100. Tiers: 90+ PRESS, 75-89 STRONG, 60-74 LEAN, 50-59 WATCH, <50 PASS.
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
George Holani · Over the number
The best move
The 0.5 is already the best line on the board (51% EV). No better rung available.
| Line | Win | Push | Loss | Price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5now | 23% | - | 77% | +550 | (+51%) |
| 1 | 2% | 21% | 77% | +3375 fair | - |
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. No two-sided main line was available to de-vig against, so a losing-side rung falls back to the flat guard. EV in (parentheses) is a longshot rung we are odds-against to win: the model is calibrated through the middle of its distribution, not the tail, so that number is indicative and never a recommendation.
★ RECENT FORM
George Holani · Anytime TD vs 0.5
LAST 5
0%
0/5 over · avg 0.0
LAST 10
0%
0/5 over · avg 0.0
SEASON
0%
0/5 over · avg 0.0
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At +550 the price needs 15% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
George Holani · Anytime TD vs 0.5
0% 0/5 over
- Oct 11vsSFL0Miss
- Oct 4vsLACW0Miss
- Sep 27@WSHL0Miss
- Sep 20@ARIW0Miss
- Sep 10vsNEW0Miss
- Feb 8@NEW0Miss
- Jan 25vsLARW0Miss
- Nov 23@TENW0Miss
- Nov 16@LARL0Miss
- Nov 9vsARIW1Hit
- Nov 3@WSHW0Miss
- Oct 21vsHOUW0Miss
- Oct 12@JAXW0Miss
- Oct 5vsTBL0Miss
- Sep 26@ARIW0Miss
- Sep 21vsNOW0Miss
- Sep 14@PITW0Miss
- Sep 7vsSFL0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 15% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splitsAWAYSEA
3-2L103-2
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+29.0
HOMEDEN
3-2L103-2
StreakW1
Home0-0
Run diff-14.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Line history
Loading…
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 minSEA
Out · 3
- Chazz SurrattOUTSurratt (calf) has been ruled out for Thursday night's contest against the Broncos, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
- Drake ThomasOUTThomas (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday night's game against the Broncos, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
- Zach CharbonnetOUTCharbonnet (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game at Denver, Corbin K. Smith of EmeraldCitySpectrum.com reports.
Other · 22
- Leonard Williams?
- Drew Lock?Lock (forearm) won't carry an injury designation into Thursday night's matchup with Denver, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba?Smith-Njigba (ankle) practiced fully Wednesday and doesn't have a designation for Thursday's game in Denver, Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13 Seattle reports.
- Cooper Kupp?Kupp caught two of three passes for 15 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
- Beau Stephens?
- George Holani?Holani rushed four times for seven yards and lost a fumble while reeling in all four of his targets for 24 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
- Tory Horton?Horton did not draw any targets during Sunday's 32-29 loss versus the 49ers.
- Rashid Shaheed?Shaheed caught two of four targets for 23 yards while also adding 86 kickoff-return yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
- AJ Barner?Barner caught three of five targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss versus the 49ers.
- Nick Kallerup?
- Montorie Foster Jr.?
- Robert Henry Jr.?
- Jalen Milroe?
- Jason Myers?Myers made all seven of his kicks (five field goals, two extra points) during the Seahawks' 32-29 loss to the 49ers on Sunday.
- Sam Darnold?Darnold completed 18 of 29 passes for 195 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He added one rushing attempt for five yards.
- Emanuel Wilson?Wilson rushed 20 times for 61 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He also caught both of his targets for 11 yards and lost a fumble.
- Julian Neal?The Seahawks placed Neal (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.
- Nehemiah Pritchett?
- Tyrice Knight?
- Ty Okada?Okada (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
- Nick Emmanwori?Emmanwori registered nine total tackles (eight solo), including 1.0 sacks, and added a pass defensed during Sunday's 30-23 win over the Chargers.
- Ernest Jones IV?Jones recorded 12 total tackles (six solo), including 1.0 sacks, and added an interception during Sunday's 30-23 win over the Chargers.
DEN
Out · 2
- Pat Surtain IIOUTSurtain (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Seahawks.
- Talanoa HufangaOUTHufanga (ankle) is expected to miss multiple weeks due to the injury he sustained in Sunday's 23-17 win over the Chargers, Jeremy Fowler and Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com report.
Questionable / DTD · 1
- Riley MossQMoss (ribs) is listed as questionable for Thursday's game against the Seahawks.
Other · 22
- Evan Engram?Engram caught all four of his targets for 55 yards during the Broncos' 23-17 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
- Sai'vion Jones?
- Dallen Bentley?
- Sam Ehlinger?
- Kage Casey?
- Tyler Onyedim?
- Jordan Jackson?
- Wil Lutz?Lutz went 3-for-4 on field-goal attempts and connected on both of his extra-point tries during the Broncos' 23-17 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
- Courtland Sutton?Sutton posted two catches (on three targets) for 18 yards and one touchdown during Sunday's 23-17 victory at the Chargers.
- RJ Harvey?Harvey notched three carries for seven yards and didn't haul in his only target during Sunday's 23-17 road win versus the Chargers.
- Jaylen Waddle?Waddle corralled two of five targets for 19 yards and also had a nine-yard carry during Sunday's 23-17 road win against the Chargers.
- Bo Nix?Nix was 16-for-27 passing for 123 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, took four carries for 10 yards and fumbled twice (one lost) during Sunday's 23-17 victory at the Chargers.
- J.K. Dobbins?Dobbins recorded 18 carries for 68 yards and one touchdown and gathered in both targets for six yards during Sunday's 23-17 win at the Chargers.
- Lil'Jordan Humphrey?The Broncos signed Humphrey off the practice squad to the active roster Friday.
- Pat Bryant?Bryant (ankle) was placed on the Broncos' injured reserve Friday.
- Dondrea Tillman?Tillman (hamstring) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
- Adam Trautman?
- Alex Singleton?Singleton recorded 14 total tackles (seven solo) during Sunday's 24-14 loss to San Francisco.
- Tyler Badie?Badie carried twice for seven yards, caught both of his targets for 32 yards, ran in a two-point conversion and returned one kickoff for 21 yards in a loss to San Francisco in Week 4.
- Adam Prentice?The Broncos signed Prentice from their practice squad to their 53-man roster Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
- Brandon Jones?Jones posted 12 tackles (10 solo) and one pass defense during the Broncos' 30-26 win over the Rams on Sunday.
- Marvin Mims Jr.?Mims (foot) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-19.3%
Edge %-2.5pp
Card ID: c-401872995-GeorgeHolani-ANYTIME_TDPublished 10/15/2026, 9:28:03 PM