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Receptions 1.5 · DEN · vs SEA · Seahawks at Broncos
2 games this season, 6 games last season, 57% on this seasonRole shift
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
1.5
UNDER
1.5
Our win %
35%
Market %
38%
Diff
+40.0%
Market
Receptions 1.5
DK
+162
2.62
Projection2.1vs1.5(+40%)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
74%
14/19
SZN
74%
14/19
H2H
-
ACC
50%
n=2773
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NFL receptions over plays: 50% of 2773 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-2.7pp
EV
-7.3%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 2-4 on Jr.
◆Best lineBuy down to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake (12% push)
Why this card
›Receptions projection 2.1 vs line 1.5
›Model read P(over) 58% sits 20pp off the market. Receptions has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: 40% looks big, but the actual gap is only 0.6 and Receptions needs 1 to count. Small lines flatter small edges.
›Prop market fair P(over) 38% across 4 books
›Calibration: NFL Receptions plays predicted ~58% have hit 50% over 2773 graded, of which 1390 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 7.7pp.
›Baby line: 1.5 is below the 3 floor for Receptions. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 2773 NFL receptions cards. The model predicted 58% on average and they hit 50%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 1390 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 7.7pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceDe-vigged book market
Implied P(over 1.5)38.1%
Fair price+163 · 2.63
Books de-vigged4
Pulled10/15, 6:14 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 4 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line2.10 vs 1.5
2 games this season, 6 games last season, 57% on this seasonRole shift
Sourcegamelog
Current games2
Prior games6
Prior games fetched17
Current mean1.50
Prior mean2.90
›All model inputs (15)
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
1.5
+1622.62
-2091.48
FD
1.5
+1402.40
-1881.53
DK implied, with vig (this side): 38.2%
Confidence readOn the fence
35% to hitrange 25-45%price needs 38%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +162 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Buy this over down to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake instead of losing (12% of outcomes), same win chance as the 1.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5
70%
-
30%
-350
-9.9%
1push-safe
58%
12%
30%
-193 fair
-
1.5
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 15 replayed days of NFL, this market moves 1.2pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 9% of the time (mean 0.05 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 706 players quoting player_receptions, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
SEA
Out · 3
Chazz SurrattOUT
Surratt (calf) has been ruled out for Thursday night's contest against the Broncos, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Drake ThomasOUT
Thomas (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday night's game against the Broncos, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Zach CharbonnetOUT
Charbonnet (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game at Denver, Corbin K. Smith of EmeraldCitySpectrum.com reports.
Other · 22
Leonard Williams?
Drew Lock?
Lock (forearm) won't carry an injury designation into Thursday night's matchup with Denver, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 38% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
?
Smith-Njigba (ankle) practiced fully Wednesday and doesn't have a designation for Thursday's game in Denver, Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13 Seattle reports.
Cooper Kupp?
Kupp caught two of three passes for 15 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
Beau Stephens?
George Holani?
Holani rushed four times for seven yards and lost a fumble while reeling in all four of his targets for 24 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
Tory Horton?
Horton did not draw any targets during Sunday's 32-29 loss versus the 49ers.
Rashid Shaheed?
Shaheed caught two of four targets for 23 yards while also adding 86 kickoff-return yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
AJ Barner?
Barner caught three of five targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss versus the 49ers.
Nick Kallerup?
Montorie Foster Jr.?
Robert Henry Jr.?
Jalen Milroe?
Jason Myers?
Myers made all seven of his kicks (five field goals, two extra points) during the Seahawks' 32-29 loss to the 49ers on Sunday.
Sam Darnold?
Darnold completed 18 of 29 passes for 195 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He added one rushing attempt for five yards.
Emanuel Wilson?
Wilson rushed 20 times for 61 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He also caught both of his targets for 11 yards and lost a fumble.
Julian Neal?
The Seahawks placed Neal (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.
Nehemiah Pritchett?
Tyrice Knight?
Ty Okada?
Okada (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Nick Emmanwori?
Emmanwori registered nine total tackles (eight solo), including 1.0 sacks, and added a pass defensed during Sunday's 30-23 win over the Chargers.
Ernest Jones IV?
Jones recorded 12 total tackles (six solo), including 1.0 sacks, and added an interception during Sunday's 30-23 win over the Chargers.
DEN
Out · 2
Pat Surtain IIOUT
Surtain (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Seahawks.
Talanoa HufangaOUT
Hufanga (ankle) is expected to miss multiple weeks due to the injury he sustained in Sunday's 23-17 win over the Chargers, Jeremy Fowler and Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com report.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Riley MossQ
Moss (ribs) is listed as questionable for Thursday's game against the Seahawks.
Other · 22
Evan Engram?
Engram caught all four of his targets for 55 yards during the Broncos' 23-17 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Sai'vion Jones?
Dallen Bentley?
Sam Ehlinger?
Kage Casey?
Tyler Onyedim?
Jordan Jackson?
Wil Lutz?
Lutz went 3-for-4 on field-goal attempts and connected on both of his extra-point tries during the Broncos' 23-17 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Courtland Sutton?
Sutton posted two catches (on three targets) for 18 yards and one touchdown during Sunday's 23-17 victory at the Chargers.
RJ Harvey?
Harvey notched three carries for seven yards and didn't haul in his only target during Sunday's 23-17 road win versus the Chargers.
Jaylen Waddle?
Waddle corralled two of five targets for 19 yards and also had a nine-yard carry during Sunday's 23-17 road win against the Chargers.
Bo Nix?
Nix was 16-for-27 passing for 123 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, took four carries for 10 yards and fumbled twice (one lost) during Sunday's 23-17 victory at the Chargers.
J.K. Dobbins?
Dobbins recorded 18 carries for 68 yards and one touchdown and gathered in both targets for six yards during Sunday's 23-17 win at the Chargers.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey?
The Broncos signed Humphrey off the practice squad to the active roster Friday.
Pat Bryant?
Bryant (ankle) was placed on the Broncos' injured reserve Friday.
Dondrea Tillman?
Tillman (hamstring) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Adam Trautman?
Alex Singleton?
Singleton recorded 14 total tackles (seven solo) during Sunday's 24-14 loss to San Francisco.
Tyler Badie?
Badie carried twice for seven yards, caught both of his targets for 32 yards, ran in a two-point conversion and returned one kickoff for 21 yards in a loss to San Francisco in Week 4.
Adam Prentice?
The Broncos signed Prentice from their practice squad to their 53-man roster Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Brandon Jones?
Jones posted 12 tackles (10 solo) and one pass defense during the Broncos' 30-26 win over the Rams on Sunday.
Marvin Mims Jr.?
Mims (foot) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
★ RECENT FORM
Marvin Mims Jr. · Receptions vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
50%
1/2 over · avg 1.5
LAST 10
50%
1/2 over · avg 1.5
SEASON
50%
1/2 over · avg 1.5
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At +162 the price needs 38% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYSEA
3-2
L103-2
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+29.0
HOMEDEN
3-2
L103-2
StreakW1
Home0-0
Run diff-14.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Marvin Mims Jr. · Receptions vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
80%4/5 over
Oct 11@LACW2Hit
Oct 4@SFL1Miss
Jan 25vsNEL4Hit
Jan 17vsBUFW8Hit
Jan 4vsLACW2Hit
Dec 26@KCW3Hit
Dec 21vsJAXL3Hit
Dec 14vsGBW4Hit
Dec 7@LVW1Miss
Dec 1@WSHW2Hit
Nov 16vsKCW0Miss
Oct 26vsDALW0Miss
Oct 19vsNYGW6Hit
Oct 12@NYJW2Hit
Oct 5@PHIW2Hit
Sep 30vsCINW6Hit
Sep 21@LACL1Miss
Sep 14@INDL2Hit
Sep 7vsTENW3Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 1.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 38% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NFL receptions over) hit 50.4% over 2,773 graded cards, 2,766 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
