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4 games this season, 20 games last season, 50% on this season
PASS
◇⊘
OVER
1.5
UNDER
1.5
Our win %
47%
Market %
42%
Diff
+16.0%
Market
Passing TDs 1.5
DK
+128
2.28
Projection1.7vs1.5(+16%)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
45%
9/20
SZN
46%
11/24
H2H
-
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
7.0%
Alpha Score
11
Recommended
1.25u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 10-4 on DarnoldK 5.00u
◆Best lineBuy down to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake (22% push)
Why this card
›Passing TDs projection 1.7 vs line 1.5
›Model read P(over) 56% sits 14pp off the market. Passing TDs has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: our 0.2 gap is only 16% of the 1.5 line, under the 17% needed to call it a real edge rather than model noise.
›Prop market fair P(over) 42% across 5 books
Sharp anchor
SourceDe-vigged book market
Implied P(over 1.5)41.9%
Fair price+139 · 2.39
Books de-vigged5
Pulled10/15, 7:01 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 5 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line1.74 vs 1.5
4 games this season, 20 games last season, 50% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
PropPASS_TDS
Games24
Current games4
Prior games20
›All model inputs (19)
Variance1.27
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
1.5
+1282.28
-1631.61
FD
1.5
+1282.28
-1681.60
DK implied, with vig (this side): 43.9%
Confidence readOn the fence
47% to hitrange 36-57%price needs 44%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +128 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 41% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Zach CharbonnetOUT
Charbonnet (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game at Denver, Corbin K. Smith of EmeraldCitySpectrum.com reports.
Other · 17
Tyrice Knight?
Knight will start in Thursday's game against the Broncos, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.
Leonard Williams?
Drew Lock?
Lock (forearm) won't carry an injury designation into Thursday night's matchup with Denver, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
Smith-Njigba (ankle) practiced fully Wednesday and doesn't have a designation for Thursday's game in Denver, Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13 Seattle reports.
Cooper Kupp?
Kupp caught two of three passes for 15 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
Beau Stephens?
George Holani?
Holani rushed four times for seven yards and lost a fumble while reeling in all four of his targets for 24 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
Tory Horton?
Horton did not draw any targets during Sunday's 32-29 loss versus the 49ers.
Rashid Shaheed?
Shaheed caught two of four targets for 23 yards while also adding 86 kickoff-return yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
AJ Barner?
Barner caught three of five targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss versus the 49ers.
Nick Kallerup?
Jason Myers?
Myers made all seven of his kicks (five field goals, two extra points) during the Seahawks' 32-29 loss to the 49ers on Sunday.
Sam Darnold?
Darnold completed 18 of 29 passes for 195 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He added one rushing attempt for five yards.
Emanuel Wilson?
Wilson rushed 20 times for 61 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He also caught both of his targets for 11 yards and lost a fumble.
Julian Neal?
The Seahawks placed Neal (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.
Nehemiah Pritchett?
Ty Okada?
Okada (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
DEN
Out · 2
Pat Surtain IIOUT
Surtain (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Seahawks.
Talanoa HufangaOUT
Hufanga (ankle) is expected to miss multiple weeks due to the injury he sustained in Sunday's 23-17 win over the Chargers, Jeremy Fowler and Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com report.
Questionable / DTD · 1
Riley MossQ
Moss (ribs) is listed as questionable for Thursday's game against the Seahawks.
Other · 22
Evan Engram?
Engram caught all four of his targets for 55 yards during the Broncos' 23-17 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Sai'vion Jones?
Dallen Bentley?
Sam Ehlinger?
Kage Casey?
Tyler Onyedim?
Jordan Jackson?
Wil Lutz?
Lutz went 3-for-4 on field-goal attempts and connected on both of his extra-point tries during the Broncos' 23-17 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Courtland Sutton?
Sutton posted two catches (on three targets) for 18 yards and one touchdown during Sunday's 23-17 victory at the Chargers.
RJ Harvey?
Harvey notched three carries for seven yards and didn't haul in his only target during Sunday's 23-17 road win versus the Chargers.
Jaylen Waddle?
Waddle corralled two of five targets for 19 yards and also had a nine-yard carry during Sunday's 23-17 road win against the Chargers.
Bo Nix?
Nix was 16-for-27 passing for 123 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, took four carries for 10 yards and fumbled twice (one lost) during Sunday's 23-17 victory at the Chargers.
J.K. Dobbins?
Dobbins recorded 18 carries for 68 yards and one touchdown and gathered in both targets for six yards during Sunday's 23-17 win at the Chargers.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey?
The Broncos signed Humphrey off the practice squad to the active roster Friday.
Pat Bryant?
Bryant (ankle) was placed on the Broncos' injured reserve Friday.
Dondrea Tillman?
Tillman (hamstring) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Adam Trautman?
Alex Singleton?
Singleton recorded 14 total tackles (seven solo) during Sunday's 24-14 loss to San Francisco.
Tyler Badie?
Badie carried twice for seven yards, caught both of his targets for 32 yards, ran in a two-point conversion and returned one kickoff for 21 yards in a loss to San Francisco in Week 4.
Adam Prentice?
The Broncos signed Prentice from their practice squad to their 53-man roster Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
Brandon Jones?
Jones posted 12 tackles (10 solo) and one pass defense during the Broncos' 30-26 win over the Rams on Sunday.
Marvin Mims Jr.?
Mims (foot) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
★ RECENT FORM
Sam Darnold · Passing TDs vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
50%
2/4 over · avg 1.8
LAST 10
50%
2/4 over · avg 1.8
SEASON
50%
2/4 over · avg 1.8
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At +128 the price needs 44% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYSEA
3-2
L103-2
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+29.0
HOMEDEN
3-2
L103-2
StreakW1
Home0-0
Run diff-14.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Sam Darnold · Passing TDs vs 1.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
40%2/5 over
Oct 11vsSFL1Miss
Oct 4vsLACW2Hit
Sep 27@WSHL4Hit
Sep 10vsNEW0Miss
Feb 8@NEW1Miss
Jan 25vsLARW3Hit
Jan 18vsSFW1Miss
Jan 4@SFW0Miss
Dec 28@CARW1Miss
Dec 19vsLARW2Hit
Dec 14vsINDW0Miss
Dec 7@ATLW3Hit
Nov 30vsMINW0Miss
Nov 23@TENW2Hit
Nov 16@LARL0Miss
Nov 9vsARIW1Miss
Nov 3@WSHW4Hit
Oct 21vsHOUW1Miss
Oct 12@JAXW2Hit
Oct 5vsTBL4Hit
Sep 26@ARIW1Miss
Sep 21vsNOW2Hit
Sep 14@PITW2Hit
Sep 7vsSFL0Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 1.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 44% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
