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NHL · UTA @ EDM · 9:00 PM ET·
Mattias Ekholm
Shots on Goal 1.5 · EDM · vs UTA · Mammoth at OilersEvery Mattias Ekholm market tonight →
PASS
OVER
1.5
UNDER
1.5
Our win %
55%
Market %
53%
Diff
+40.0%
Market
Shots on Goal 1.5
FD
-128
1.78
Projection0.9vs1.5(+40%)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
67%
4/6
L20
67%
4/6
SZN
67%
4/6
H2H
-
ACC
54%
n=12473
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on NHL shots on goal under plays: 54% of 12473 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (NHL shots on goal under) hit 53.9% over 12,473 graded cards, 12,437 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Edge
+1.9pp
EV
-1.7%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 3-4 on Ekholm
Best lineBuy up to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake (17% push)
Why this card
- ›Shots on Goal projection 0.9 vs line 1.5
- ›Model read P(under) 62% sits 9pp off the market. Shots on Goal has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
- ›Edge test fails: 40% looks big, but the actual gap is only 0.6 and Shots on Goal needs 1 to count. Small lines flatter small edges.
- ›Prop market fair P(under) 53% across 4 books
- ›Calibration: NHL Shots on Goal plays predicted ~57% have hit 54% over 12473 graded, of which 6255 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 3.1pp.
- ›Baby line: 1.5 is below the 2 floor for Shots on Goal. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
- ›Thin sample: the projection rests on 6 games. Capped at LEAN until 8.
- ›Injury kill: EDM has 2 OUT
KILL SIGNALS
- ⚠ baby line
- ⚠ EDM has 2 OUT
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 12473 NHL shots on goal cards. The model predicted 57% on average and they hit 54%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 6255 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 3.1pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceDe-vigged book market
Implied P(under 1.5)53.3%
Fair price+114 · 2.14
Books de-vigged4
Pulled10/15, 6:31 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 4 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.90 vs 1.5
Sourcegamelog
SportNHL
Games6
Current games6
Prior games0
Prior games fetched0
All model inputs (18)
Variance1.20
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNHL
propSHOTS_ON_GOAL
games6
current_games6
prior_games0
prior_games_fetched0
current_mean0.830
prior_meannull
current_weight1
role_shift0
variance_floor1.20
opp_adj1
player_espn_id2558631
Market lines
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK | 1.5 | +1002.00 | -1351.74 |
| FD★ Best | 1.5 | -1021.98 | -1281.78 |
FD implied, with vig (this side): 56.1%
Confidence readOn the fence
55% to hitrange 47-63%price needs 56%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -128 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+30.6/ 55
Calibrated win probability 55%
Market+9.9/ 15
Market consensus 53% on our side
Price+-4.3/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Components sum to 28; published as 0 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Prop weights: calibrated win probability 55 · market consensus 15 · price 15 · edge test 15 · kill signals -8 then -5 each. Clamped 0-100. Tiers: 90+ PRESS, 75-89 STRONG, 60-74 LEAN, 50-59 WATCH, <50 PASS.
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Mattias Ekholm · Under the number
The best move
Buy this under up to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake instead of losing (17% of outcomes), same win chance as the 1.5.
| Line | Win | Push | Loss | Price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 21% | 38% | -111 fair | - |
| 1.5nowbest EV | 62% | - | 38% | -128 | +11.3% |
| 2push-safe | 62% | 17% | 20% | -306 fair | - |
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 53% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splitsAWAYUTA
5-2L105-2-0, 0 PTS
StreakW2
Road0-0
Run diff+1.2
HOMEEDM
5-0L105-0-1, 0 PTS
StreakW5
Home0-0
Run diff+1.8
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 29 replayed days of NHL, this market moves 0.4pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 3% of the time (mean 0.02 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 3305 players quoting player_shots_on_goal, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 minUTA
Out · 1
- Michael CarconeOUTCarcone is week-to-week due to his upper-body injury, the team announced Saturday.
Other · 1
- Maveric Lamoureux?ir
EDM
Out · 2
- Zach HymanOUTout
- Jake WalmanOUTout
Questionable / DTD · 1
- Jason DickinsonDTDday-to-day
Other · 8
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?Nugent-Hopkins (lower body) will be sidelined against Utah on Thursday, Mark Spector of Sportsnet reports.
- Colton Dach?ir
- Alec Regula?Regula (undisclosed) was designated for long-term injured reserve Thursday.
- Matt Savoie?Savoie (lower body) was shifted to long-term injured reserve Thursday.
- Frederik Andersen?Andersen (knee) isn't expected back until "maybe" December, head coach Mike Babcock told NHL.com on Tuesday.
- Mattias Janmark?Janmark (undisclosed) does not have a timetable for his return from injury.
- James Stefan?ir-nr
- Atro Leppanen?ir-nr
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-1.7%
Edge %+1.9pp
Card ID: c-401892515-MattiasEkholm-SHOTS_ON_GOALPublished 10/15/2026, 10:31:11 PM