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MLB · TB @ CLE · 1:00 PM ET·
Jose Ramirez
Runs 0.5 · CLE · vs TB · Rays at Guardians
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Runs 0.5 · CLE · vs TB · Rays at Guardians
Bet Data Labs has graded 53 MLB runs cards. The model predicted 44% on average and they hit 40%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 53 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 2.7pp for it.
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK★ Best | 0.5 | +1212.21 | -1671.60 |
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +121 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Prop weights: calibrated win probability 55 · market consensus 15 · price 15 · edge test 15 · kill signals -8 then -5 each. Clamped 0-100. Tiers: 90+ PRESS, 75-89 STRONG, 60-74 LEAN, 50-59 WATCH, <50 PASS.
The 0.5 is already the best line on the board (55.7% EV). No better rung available.
| Line | Win | Push | Loss | Price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5nowbest EV | 70% | - | 30% | +121 | +55.7% |
| 1 | 34% | 37% | 30% | -114 fair | - |
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 42% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At +121 the price needs 45% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 45% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (MLB runs over) hit 39.6% over 53 graded cards. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Graded off the ESPN box score. No cherry-picking, no removed losses.