Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on MLB rbis under plays: 73% of 96 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-0.5pp
EV
-6.5%
Alpha Score
50
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 27-8 on Pratt
◆Best lineBuy up to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake (22% push)
⧉
Same-Game Cap
This is read 37 of 51 the board is showing on this one game. Cards ranked 3rd or deeper inside their own game went 22-43 (33.8%) in July while the 1st and 2nd reads went 127-114, so it is decayed a tier band. The reads share one game state: a blowout or a washout takes all of them together. All 51 lose together 0.0% to 20.8% of the time. The low end assumes the legs are unrelated, the high end assumes one game state moves all of them. Same-game legs sit near the top of that band. Size it down and do not stack it with its siblings.
Why this card
›RBIs projection 0.0 vs line 0.5
›Model read P(under) 65% sits 10pp off the market. RBIs has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: on a line this low, a 0.5 gap is inside the model's own error bar.
›Prop market fair P(under) 75% across 3 books
›Calibration: MLB RBIs plays predicted ~67% have hit 73% over 96 graded, of which 96 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 4.5pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Same-game cap: read 37 of 51 the board is showing on this game, and reads past the 2nd went 22-43 (33.8%) in July. Sized down, do not stack with its siblings. All 51 lose together somewhere between 0.0% and 20.8% of the time, and same-game legs sit near the top of that band.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 96 MLB rbis cards. The model predicted 67% on average and they hit 73%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 96 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was raised 4.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceDe-vigged book market
Implied P(under 0.5)75.3%
Fair price+305 · 4.05
Books de-vigged3
Pulled10/15, 6:14 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 3 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.00 vs 0.5
81 games this season, 100% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportMLB
PropRBIS
Games81
Current games81
Prior games0
›All model inputs (18)
Variance0.90
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK
0.5
+2833.83
-4181.24
FANATICS★ Best
0.5
+2603.60
-4001.25
FANATICS implied, with vig (this side): 80.0%
Confidence readOn the fence
75% to hitrange 68-81%price needs 80%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -400 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 50?
TOTAL
50/100
Win prob+55/ 55
Calibrated win probability 75%
Market+15/ 15
Market consensus 75% on our side
Price+-10/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Components sum to 52; published as 50 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Buy this under up to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake instead of losing (22% of outcomes), same win chance as the 0.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
65%
-
35%
-400
-18.4%
1push-safe
65%
22%
13%
-500 fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 75% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
MIL
Other · 5
Brandon Woodruff?
Woodruff (shoulder) threw roughly 30 pitches during a bullpen session Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Grant Anderson?
Anderson (biceps) will begin a rehab assignment Wednesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Brian Fitzpatrick?
Fitzpatrick (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery over the past week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Quinn Priester?
Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Angel Zerpa?
The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.
LAD
Other · 7
Blake Treinen?
President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said Saturday that Treinen (shoulder) hasn't been ruled out for a return in the postseason, Jon Paul Hoornstra of Newsweek.com reports.
Will Klein?
Klein (elbow) threw live batting practice Tuesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
Eric Lauer?
The Dodgers transferred Lauer (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
Gavin Stone?
Stone (shoulder/biceps) resumed his rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday, allowing three runs over two-thirds of an inning.
Jake Cousins?
Cousins (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday, striking out one and issuing one walk in a scoreless frame.
Ben Casparius?
Casparius (shoulder) experienced arm fatigue while on a minor-league rehab assignment and has been shut down from throwing, MLB.com reports.
Brusdar Graterol?
Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYMIL
103-59
L108-2
StreakW5
Road48-33
Run diff+1.3
HOMELAD
100-62
L108-2
StreakW3
Home51-30
Run diff+1.2
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
★ RECENT FORM
Cooper Pratt · RBIs vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
100%
5/5 under · avg 0.0
LAST 10
100%
10/10 under · avg 0.0
SEASON
69%
56/81 under · avg 0.4
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At -400 the price needs 80% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Cooper Pratt · RBIs vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
100%5/5 under
Oct 15@LADW0Hit
Oct 12vsLADW0Hit
Oct 12vsLADW0Hit
Oct 8@SDW0Hit
Oct 7@SDL0Hit
Oct 4vsSDW0Hit
Oct 4vsSDW0Hit
Sep 27vsSTLW0Hit
Sep 26vsSTLW0Hit
Sep 25vsSTLW0Hit
Sep 24@PHIW1Miss
Sep 22@PHIL0Hit
Sep 20@BALW2Miss
Sep 19@BALW0Hit
Sep 18@BALW0Hit
Sep 17@PITL0Hit
Sep 16@PITW1Miss
Sep 13vsCINL0Hit
Sep 12vsCINW1Miss
Sep 11vsCINW0Hit
Sep 9vsCHCW0Hit
Sep 8vsCHCW0Hit
Sep 7vsCHCW0Hit
Sep 6@CINL1Miss
Sep 5@CINL0Hit
Sep 4@CINW4Miss
Sep 2@CHCW1Miss
Sep 1@CHCW1Miss
Aug 31@CHCL2Miss
Aug 29vsTEXW1Miss
Aug 27@NYMW1Miss
Aug 26@NYMW0Hit
Aug 25@NYML0Hit
Aug 23vsATLL0Hit
Aug 22vsATLW1Miss
Aug 21vsATLW0Hit
Aug 19vsSEAL0Hit
Aug 8vsMINW0Hit
Aug 7vsMINL0Hit
Aug 6vsPITW1Miss
Aug 5vsPITW0Hit
Aug 4vsPITW0Hit
Aug 3vsPITL0Hit
Aug 2@LAAL0Hit
Aug 2@LAAW1Miss
Aug 1@LAAW1Miss
Jul 29@SFL0Hit
Jul 29@SFW1Miss
Jul 28@SFL0Hit
Jul 26vsCOLW2Miss
Jul 25vsCOLW3Miss
Jul 22vsNYMW0Hit
Jul 21vsNYML0Hit
Jul 20vsNYMW1Miss
Jul 19vsMIAW0Hit
Jul 18vsMIAW0Hit
Jul 17vsMIAW0Hit
Jul 11@PITL0Hit
Jul 11@PITL1Miss
Jul 9@STLW1Miss
Jul 8@STLL1Miss
Jul 7@STLW2Miss
Jul 7@STLW0Hit
Jul 6@STLW0Hit
Jul 5@ARIL0Hit
Jul 4@ARIW0Hit
Jul 2vsCINL0Hit
Jul 2vsCINW0Hit
Jun 29vsCINW0Hit
Jun 28vsCHCL0Hit
Jun 27vsCHCL0Hit
Jun 26vsCHCW0Hit
Jun 24@CINW0Hit
Jun 23@CINW0Hit
Jun 22@CINW0Hit
Jun 21@ATLW0Hit
Jun 20@ATLL0Hit
Jun 19@ATLL0Hit
Jun 18vsCLEL1Miss
Jun 17vsCLEW1Miss
Jun 16vsCLEW0Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 80% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (MLB rbis under) hit 72.9% over 96 graded cards. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
