Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on MLB hits under plays: 52% of 23060 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-1.7pp
EV
-10.0%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 22-13 on Hernandez
◆Best lineBuy up to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake (26% push)
Why this card
›Hits projection 0.2 vs line 0.5
›Model read P(under) 59% sits 9pp off the market. Hits has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: books are not quoting the same number, so there is no single line to price against.
›Prop market fair P(under) 50% across 2 books
›Calibration: MLB Hits plays predicted ~59% have hit 52% over 23060 graded, of which 11542 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 6.7pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
Bet Data Labs has graded 23060 MLB hits cards. The model predicted 59% on average and they hit 52%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 11542 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 6.7pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceDe-vigged book market
Implied P(under 0.5)50.5%
Fair price+102 · 2.02
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/15, 1:52 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.24 vs 0.5
Median0.24
Variance0.80
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
41 games this season, 100% on this season
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportMLB
prop
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.5
-1121.89
-1181.85
DK implied, with vig (this side): 54.1%
Confidence readOn the fence
49% to hitrange 41-56%price needs 54%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -118 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Buy this under up to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake instead of losing (26% of outcomes), same win chance as the 0.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5nowbest EV
59%
-
41%
-118
+9.1%
1push-safe
59%
26%
14%
-409 fair
-
Line history
Loading…
Typical pre-close movement
Across 28 replayed days of MLB, this market moves 1.7pp of implied probability on average between six hours out and the close, and the line itself moves 27% of the time (mean 0.15 units of line across every pair measured, movers and non-movers together).
Absolute magnitude over 3944 players quoting batter_hits, so signed moves cannot cancel. A volatile market is not an inefficient one: this says how much the close knows that six hours out did not, not which way.
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
MIL
Other · 5
Brandon Woodruff?
Woodruff (shoulder) threw roughly 30 pitches during a bullpen session Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Grant Anderson?
Anderson (biceps) will begin a rehab assignment Wednesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Brian Fitzpatrick?
Fitzpatrick (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery over the past week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Quinn Priester?
Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Angel Zerpa?
The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 51% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Other · 7
Blake Treinen?
President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said Saturday that Treinen (shoulder) hasn't been ruled out for a return in the postseason, Jon Paul Hoornstra of Newsweek.com reports.
Will Klein?
Klein (elbow) threw live batting practice Tuesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
Eric Lauer?
The Dodgers transferred Lauer (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
Gavin Stone?
Stone (shoulder/biceps) resumed his rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday, allowing three runs over two-thirds of an inning.
Jake Cousins?
Cousins (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday, striking out one and issuing one walk in a scoreless frame.
Ben Casparius?
Casparius (shoulder) experienced arm fatigue while on a minor-league rehab assignment and has been shut down from throwing, MLB.com reports.
Brusdar Graterol?
Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYMIL
103-59
L108-2
StreakW5
Road48-33
Run diff+1.3
HOMELAD
100-62
L108-2
StreakW3
Home51-30
Run diff+1.2
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (MLB hits under) hit 52.4% over 23,060 graded cards, 23,036 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
★ RECENT FORM
Enrique Hernandez · Hits vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 under · avg 0.2
LAST 10
60%
6/10 under · avg 0.4
SEASON
59%
24/41 under · avg 0.5
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At -118 the price needs 54% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Enrique Hernandez · Hits vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
80%4/5 under
Oct 15vsMILL0Hit
Oct 12@MILL0Hit
Oct 7@ATLW0Hit
Oct 6@ATLW1Miss
Sep 27@SFW0Hit
Sep 26@SFW1Miss
Sep 26@SFW1Miss
Sep 20vsSFW1Miss
Sep 20vsSFW0Hit
Sep 19vsSFW0Hit
Sep 16@CINL1Miss
Sep 14@CINW1Miss
Sep 13@MIAL1Miss
Sep 11@MIAW0Hit
Sep 10vsCINW2Miss
Sep 9vsCINW0Hit
Sep 7vsWSHW0Hit
Sep 6vsWSHW1Miss
Sep 5vsWSHW0Hit
Sep 4vsSTLW0Hit
Sep 3vsSTLL0Hit
Sep 2vsSTLL1Miss
Aug 30@DETW1Miss
Aug 29@DETL0Hit
Aug 28@DETW1Miss
Aug 27@ATLL0Hit
Aug 22vsPITW0Hit
Aug 20@COLW2Miss
Aug 18@COLW0Hit
Aug 15vsMILW0Hit
Aug 14vsMILL0Hit
Aug 9@ARIL1Miss
Aug 8@ARIL0Hit
Aug 5@CHCL0Hit
Aug 4@CHCL0Hit
Aug 2vsBOSL0Hit
Aug 2vsBOSL0Hit
Aug 1vsBOSL1Miss
Jul 31vsSEAW0Hit
May 27vsCOLW2Miss
May 26vsCOLW2Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 54% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
