Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
+5.0pp
EV
5.0%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.97u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
K 3.87u
◆Best lineBuy down to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake (7% push)
Why this card
›Hits Allowed projection 5.0 vs line 2.5
›Model read P(over) 81% sits 40pp off the market. Hits Allowed has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: books are not quoting the same number, so there is no single line to price against.
›Prop market fair P(over) 41% across 1 book
›Baby line: 2.5 is below the 4.5 floor for Hits Allowed. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
Bet Data Labs has graded 15 MLB hits allowed cards. The model predicted 55% on average and they hit 47%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 15 cards about the model running now. Not enough sample to correct scoring yet; shown as receipts.
Sharp anchor
SourceBook consensus
Implied P(over 2.5)40.8%
Fair price+145 · 2.45
Books de-vigged1
Pulled10/15, 7:42 PM ET
Only one book quotes both sides of this line, so fair value here is one book's opinion, not a market. Treat the edge as provisional.
Our projection
Projection vs line4.97 vs 2.5
24 games this season, 100% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportMLB
Games24
Current games24
Prior games0
Prior games fetched0
›All model inputs (18)
Variance1.89
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
2.5
+1292.29
-1721.58
DK implied, with vig (this side): 43.7%
Confidence readOn the fence
46% to hitrange 40-51%price needs 44%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +129 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
Buy this over down to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake instead of losing (7% of outcomes), same win chance as the 2.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
2push-safe
81%
7%
12%
-700 fair
-
2.5nowbest EV
81%
-
19%
+129
+85.4%
Line history
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Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
MIL
Other · 5
Brandon Woodruff?
Woodruff (shoulder) threw roughly 30 pitches during a bullpen session Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Grant Anderson?
Anderson (biceps) will begin a rehab assignment Wednesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Brian Fitzpatrick?
Fitzpatrick (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery over the past week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Quinn Priester?
Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Angel Zerpa?
The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 41% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Other · 7
Blake Treinen?
President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said Saturday that Treinen (shoulder) hasn't been ruled out for a return in the postseason, Jon Paul Hoornstra of Newsweek.com reports.
Will Klein?
Klein (elbow) threw live batting practice Tuesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
Eric Lauer?
The Dodgers transferred Lauer (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
Gavin Stone?
Stone (shoulder/biceps) resumed his rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday, allowing three runs over two-thirds of an inning.
Jake Cousins?
Cousins (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday, striking out one and issuing one walk in a scoreless frame.
Ben Casparius?
Casparius (shoulder) experienced arm fatigue while on a minor-league rehab assignment and has been shut down from throwing, MLB.com reports.
Brusdar Graterol?
Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
★ RECENT FORM
Shane Drohan · Hits Allowed vs 2.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
40%
2/5 over · avg 2.0
LAST 10
60%
6/10 over · avg 3.3
SEASON
67%
22/33 over · avg 3.7
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At +129 the price needs 44% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYMIL
103-59
L108-2
StreakW5
Road48-33
Run diff+1.3
HOMELAD
100-62
L108-2
StreakW3
Home51-30
Run diff+1.2
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Game log
Shane Drohan · Hits Allowed vs 2.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the over
40%2/5 over
Sep 27vsSTLW0Miss
Sep 24@PHIW3Hit
Sep 18@BALW0Miss
Sep 16@PITW2Miss
Sep 12vsCINW5Hit
Sep 4@CINW5Hit
Aug 29vsTEXW6Hit
Aug 23vsATLL8Hit
Aug 18vsSEAW1Miss
Aug 14@LADW3Hit
Aug 7vsMINL9Hit
Aug 1@LAAW4Hit
Jul 24vsCOLL6Hit
Jul 18vsMIAW5Hit
Jul 11@PITL5Hit
Jul 6@STLW6Hit
Jul 2vsCINW6Hit
Jun 24@CINW5Hit
Jun 18vsCLEL3Hit
Jun 13vsPHIL8Hit
Jun 7@COLW5Hit
Jun 1vsSFW4Hit
May 27vsSTLW1Miss
May 24vsLADL2Miss
May 22vsLADW1Miss
May 18@CHCW4Hit
May 12vsSDW0Miss
May 8vsNYYW1Miss
May 4@STLL1Miss
Apr 30vsARIW5Hit
Apr 28vsARIW0Miss
Apr 24vsPITL4Hit
Apr 8@BOSL3Hit
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 2.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 44% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
