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MLB · MIL @ LAD · 8:00 PM ET·
Shane Drohan
Strikeouts 2.5 · MIL · @ LAD · Brewers at DodgersEvery Shane Drohan market tonight →
PASS
OVER
2.5
UNDER
2.5
Our win %
40%
Market %
46%
Diff
+112.0%
Market
Strikeouts 2.5
DK
+106
2.06
Projection5.3vs2.5(+112%)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
70%
14/20
SZN
61%
20/33
H2H
67%
2/3
ACC
51%
n=2583
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on MLB strikeouts over plays: 51% of 2583 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (MLB strikeouts over) hit 50.5% over 2,583 graded cards, 2,320 of them replayed from historical lines. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
Edge
-5.7pp
EV
-17.3%
Alpha Score
0
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
Best lineBuy down to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake (8% push)
Why this card
- ›Strikeouts projection 5.3 average, 4.7 typical game vs line 2.5
- ›Model read P(over) 80% sits 34pp off the market. Strikeouts has earned a 0.3pp lean over 343 graded plays, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
- ›Strikeouts is right skewed: a few big games lift the average above the typical game, so the model prices the typical game.
- ›Edge test fails: books are not quoting the same number, so there is no single line to price against.
- ›Prop market fair P(over) 46% across 2 books
- ›Calibration: MLB Strikeouts plays predicted ~57% have hit 51% over 2583 graded, of which 1219 still describe the current model. Win prob cut 6.1pp.
- ›Baby line: 2.5 is below the 3.5 floor for Strikeouts. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
- ›Weather: Dodger Stadium, 89°F, 9 mph gust, 0% precip (hot:89F)
- ›Midday K-over timing leak: the strikeout-over edge lives on the overnight opener, not the midday price (feedback_kover_timing_leak). Off the auto-slate; capture on the opener or skip.
KILL SIGNALS
- ⚠ baby line
- ⚠ midday K-over timing leak
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 2583 MLB strikeouts cards. The model predicted 57% on average and they hit 51%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 1219 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was cut 6.1pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceDe-vigged book market
Implied P(over 2.5)45.9%
Fair price+118 · 2.18
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/15, 7:01 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line5.30 vs 2.5
Pitcher K per 98.97
Pitcher K per 9 blended9.02
Pitcher K per 9 season9.02
Season innings124.70
Pitcher K per 9 last 39
Last 3 starts3
All model inputs (26)
Variance1.00
Modelmlb-ks-v0.6
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
pitcher_espn_id4315203
pitcher_k_per_98.97
pitcher_k_per_9_blended9.02
pitcher_k_per_9_season9.02
season_innings124.70
pitcher_k_per_9_l39
l3_starts3
l3_innings6
expected_ip4.46
expected_ip_season5.46
expected_ip_l32
appearances33
relief_apps14
starter_ip_per_start5.46
opp_k_pct0.268
opp_k_factor1.19
venue_teamLAD
park_venue_factor1
park_pitcher_baseline1
park_factor1
starts19
variance_base1
form_vol_mult1
Market lines
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK★ Best | 2.5 | +1062.06 | -1351.74 |
DK implied, with vig (this side): 48.5%
Confidence readPrice too short
40% to hitrange 30-48%price needs 49%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what +106 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 0?
TOTAL
0/100
Win prob+0/ 55
Calibrated win probability 40%
Market+-10/ 15
Market consensus leans against us (46% our side)
Price+-10/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Prop weights: calibrated win probability 55 · market consensus 15 · price 15 · edge test 15 · kill signals -8 then -5 each. Clamped 0-100. Tiers: 90+ PRESS, 75-89 STRONG, 60-74 LEAN, 50-59 WATCH, <50 PASS.
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Shane Drohan · Over the number
The best move
Buy this over down to 2: an exact 2 returns your stake instead of losing (8% of outcomes), same win chance as the 2.5.
| Line | Win | Push | Loss | Price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2push-safe | 80% | 8% | 12% | -692 fair | - |
| 2.5nowbest EV | 80% | - | 20% | +106 | +65.2% |
| 3 | 68% | 12% | 20% | -345 fair | - |
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 46% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
★ RECENT FORM
Shane Drohan · Ks vs 2.5
LAST 5
20%
1/5 over · avg 2.0
LAST 10
50%
5/10 over · avg 3.2
SEASON
61%
20/33 over · avg 3.8
Cells scored against the Over, the side this card is on. At +106 the price needs 49% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Shane Drohan · Strikeouts vs 2.5
20% 1/5 over
- Sep 27vsSTLW2Miss
- Sep 24@PHIW2Miss
- Sep 18@BALW2Miss
- Sep 16@PITW0Miss
- Sep 12vsCINW4Hit
- Sep 4@CINW5Hit
- Aug 29vsTEXW6Hit
- Aug 23vsATLL5Hit
- Aug 18vsSEAW1Miss
- Aug 14@LADW5Hit
- Aug 7vsMINL4Hit
- Aug 1@LAAW7Hit
- Jul 24vsCOLL6Hit
- Jul 18vsMIAW9Hit
- Jul 11@PITL6Hit
- Jul 6@STLW2Miss
- Jul 2vsCINW7Hit
- Jun 24@CINW5Hit
- Jun 18vsCLEL3Hit
- Jun 13vsPHIL7Hit
- Jun 7@COLW4Hit
- Jun 1vsSFW5Hit
- May 27vsSTLW1Miss
- May 24vsLADL5Hit
- May 22vsLADW2Miss
- May 18@CHCW5Hit
- May 12vsSDW2Miss
- May 8vsNYYW3Hit
- May 4@STLL1Miss
- Apr 30vsARIW4Hit
- Apr 28vsARIW1Miss
- Apr 24vsPITL2Miss
- Apr 8@BOSL2Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 2.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 49% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splitsAWAYMIL
103-59L108-2
StreakW5
Road48-33
Run diff+1.3
HOMELAD
100-62L108-2
StreakW3
Home51-30
Run diff+1.2
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Line history
Loading…
Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 minMIL
Other · 5
- Brandon Woodruff?Woodruff (shoulder) threw roughly 30 pitches during a bullpen session Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
- Grant Anderson?Anderson (biceps) will begin a rehab assignment Wednesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
- Brian Fitzpatrick?Fitzpatrick (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery over the past week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- Quinn Priester?Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
- Angel Zerpa?The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.
LAD
Other · 7
- Blake Treinen?President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said Saturday that Treinen (shoulder) hasn't been ruled out for a return in the postseason, Jon Paul Hoornstra of Newsweek.com reports.
- Will Klein?Klein (elbow) threw live batting practice Tuesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
- Eric Lauer?The Dodgers transferred Lauer (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
- Gavin Stone?Stone (shoulder/biceps) resumed his rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday, allowing three runs over two-thirds of an inning.
- Jake Cousins?Cousins (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday, striking out one and issuing one walk in a scoreless frame.
- Ben Casparius?Casparius (shoulder) experienced arm fatigue while on a minor-league rehab assignment and has been shut down from throwing, MLB.com reports.
- Brusdar Graterol?Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-17.3%
Edge %-5.7pp
Card ID: c-401908033-ShaneDrohan-PITCHER_KSPublished 10/15/2026, 11:01:31 PM