Bet Data Labs is an independent data and analytics service. We are not a sportsbook and we do not accept wagers. No outcome is guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results.
ACC is Bet Data Labs' graded record on MLB rbis under plays: 73% of 96 settled cards. It measures us, not this player.
Edge
-0.5pp
EV
-7.9%
Alpha Score
50
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 27-14 on Smith
◆Best lineBuy up to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake (27% push)
⧉
Same-Game Cap
This is read 47 of 51 the board is showing on this one game. Cards ranked 3rd or deeper inside their own game went 22-43 (33.8%) in July while the 1st and 2nd reads went 127-114, so it is decayed a tier band. The reads share one game state: a blowout or a washout takes all of them together. All 51 lose together 0.0% to 20.8% of the time. The low end assumes the legs are unrelated, the high end assumes one game state moves all of them. Same-game legs sit near the top of that band. Size it down and do not stack it with its siblings.
Why this card
›RBIs projection 0.4 vs line 0.5
›Model read P(under) 53% sits 13pp off the market. RBIs has no graded record yet, so it keeps the default 5.0pp lean, so the read was pulled back to that cap before pricing.
›Edge test fails: books are not quoting the same number, so there is no single line to price against.
›Prop market fair P(under) 66% across 2 books
›Calibration: MLB RBIs plays predicted ~67% have hit 73% over 96 graded, of which 96 still describe the current model. Win prob raised 4.5pp.
›Baby line: a 0.5-line prop is an opportunity bet by definition. Capped at LEAN.
›Same-game cap: read 47 of 51 the board is showing on this game, and reads past the 2nd went 22-43 (33.8%) in July. Sized down, do not stack with its siblings. All 51 lose together somewhere between 0.0% and 20.8% of the time, and same-game legs sit near the top of that band.
KILL SIGNALS
⚠ baby line
PLAYS LIKE THIS
Bet Data Labs has graded 96 MLB rbis cards. The model predicted 67% on average and they hit 73%. Weighted for model changes since, that history is worth 96 cards about the model running now. This card's win prob was raised 4.5pp for it.
Sharp anchor
SourceDe-vigged book market
Implied P(under 0.5)66.0%
Fair price+194 · 2.94
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/15, 6:14 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line0.39 vs 0.5
80 games this season, 100% on this season
Sourcegamelog
SportMLB
PropRBIS
Games80
Current games80
Prior games0
›All model inputs (18)
Variance0.90
Market lines
Book
Line
Over
Under
DK★ Best
0.5
+1752.75
-2471.40
DK implied, with vig (this side): 71.2%
Confidence readOn the fence
66% to hitrange 58-73%price needs 71%
The price's breakeven sits inside our range, so this one turns on exactly where the projection lands.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -247 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 50?
TOTAL
50/100
Win prob+55/ 55
Calibrated win probability 66%
Market+15/ 15
Market consensus 66% on our side
Price+-10/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Components sum to 52; published as 50 after a tier rule (baby-line LEAN cap, or no PRESS without the market ≥55% on our side).
Buy this under up to 1: an exact 1 returns your stake instead of losing (27% of outcomes), same win chance as the 0.5.
Line
Win
Push
Loss
Price
EV
0.5now
53%
-
47%
-247
-24.9%
1push-safe
53%
27%
20%
-271 fair
-
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Line history
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Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 min
MIL
Other · 5
Brandon Woodruff?
Woodruff (shoulder) threw roughly 30 pitches during a bullpen session Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Grant Anderson?
Anderson (biceps) will begin a rehab assignment Wednesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Brian Fitzpatrick?
Fitzpatrick (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery over the past week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Quinn Priester?
Priester will undergo thoracic outlet compression surgery on Monday and is expected to be sidelined 8-to-10 months, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Angel Zerpa?
The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 66% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
Other · 7
Blake Treinen?
President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said Saturday that Treinen (shoulder) hasn't been ruled out for a return in the postseason, Jon Paul Hoornstra of Newsweek.com reports.
Will Klein?
Klein (elbow) threw live batting practice Tuesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
Eric Lauer?
The Dodgers transferred Lauer (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
Gavin Stone?
Stone (shoulder/biceps) resumed his rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday, allowing three runs over two-thirds of an inning.
Jake Cousins?
Cousins (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Wednesday, striking out one and issuing one walk in a scoreless frame.
Ben Casparius?
Casparius (shoulder) experienced arm fatigue while on a minor-league rehab assignment and has been shut down from throwing, MLB.com reports.
Brusdar Graterol?
Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splits
AWAYMIL
103-59
L108-2
StreakW5
Road48-33
Run diff+1.3
HOMELAD
100-62
L108-2
StreakW3
Home51-30
Run diff+1.2
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
About ACC Our plays in this bucket (MLB rbis under) hit 72.9% over 96 graded cards. That is our settled record in this market, not this card's win probability and not a claim about the board as a whole.
★ RECENT FORM
Will Smith · RBIs vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · hit rates vs line
LAST 5
80%
4/5 under · avg 0.4
LAST 10
90%
9/10 under · avg 0.2
SEASON
68%
54/80 under · avg 0.5
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At -247 the price needs 71% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Will Smith · RBIs vs 0.5
ESPN gamelog · newest first · scored for the under
80%4/5 under
Oct 15vsMILL2Miss
Oct 12@MILL0Hit
Oct 12@MILL0Hit
Oct 7@ATLW0Hit
Oct 6@ATLW0Hit
Oct 5vsATLL0Hit
Oct 3vsATLW0Hit
Sep 26@SFW0Hit
Sep 26@SFW0Hit
Sep 24vsSDL0Hit
Sep 23vsSDW1Miss
Sep 20vsSFW0Hit
Sep 20vsSFW2Miss
Sep 19vsSFW1Miss
Sep 16@CINL1Miss
Sep 14@CINW0Hit
Sep 13@MIAL0Hit
Sep 12@MIAL0Hit
Sep 11@MIAW1Miss
Sep 10vsCINW0Hit
Sep 9vsCINW1Miss
Sep 8vsCINW1Miss
Sep 7vsWSHW1Miss
Sep 6vsWSHW0Hit
Sep 5vsWSHW0Hit
Sep 4vsSTLW0Hit
Sep 3vsSTLL0Hit
Sep 2vsSTLL2Miss
Jun 6vsLAAW0Hit
Jun 5@ARIL0Hit
Jun 4@ARIW0Hit
Jun 2@ARIL0Hit
May 31vsPHIL0Hit
May 30vsPHIW1Miss
May 28vsCOLW0Hit
May 27vsCOLW2Miss
May 26vsCOLW0Hit
May 23@MILW1Miss
May 21@SDW0Hit
May 20@SDW0Hit
May 19@SDL0Hit
May 17@LAAW1Miss
May 16@LAAW0Hit
May 15vsSFW1Miss
May 14vsSFW0Hit
May 13vsSFL1Miss
May 12vsSFL0Hit
May 10vsATLL0Hit
May 9vsATLW0Hit
May 6@HOUL0Hit
May 5@HOUW1Miss
May 2@STLL0Hit
May 2@STLL0Hit
Apr 29vsMIAL0Hit
Apr 29vsMIAL1Miss
Apr 28vsMIAW0Hit
Apr 25vsCHCL3Miss
Apr 23@SFL0Hit
Apr 22@SFL0Hit
Apr 21@COLW0Hit
Apr 19@COLL1Miss
Apr 19@COLL0Hit
Apr 18@COLW2Miss
Apr 16vsNYMW0Hit
Apr 15vsNYMW0Hit
Apr 14vsNYMW1Miss
Apr 12vsTEXL0Hit
Apr 12vsTEXW0Hit
Apr 11vsTEXW0Hit
Apr 8@TORL1Miss
Apr 7@TORW1Miss
Apr 5@WSHW0Hit
Apr 4@WSHW0Hit
Apr 3@WSHW0Hit
Apr 2vsCLEL0Hit
Apr 1vsCLEW0Hit
Mar 31vsCLEL0Hit
Mar 29vsARIW2Miss
Mar 28vsARIW0Hit
Mar 27vsARIW3Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 0.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 71% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
