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Spread · NYI · @ OTT · Islanders at Senators
This is read 3 of 3 the board is showing on this one game. Cards ranked 3rd or deeper inside their own game went 22-43 (33.8%) in July while the 1st and 2nd reads went 127-114, so it is decayed a tier band. The reads share one game state: a blowout or a washout takes all of them together. All 3 lose together 2.7% to 21.7% of the time. The low end assumes the legs are unrelated, the high end assumes one game state moves all of them. Same-game legs sit near the top of that band. Size it down and do not stack it with its siblings.
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| FD★ Best | 1.5 | -1781.56 | +1642.64 |
This scores 50: it earned 23.3 of 45 for expected value at this price and 23.3 of 25 for sharp agreement, but it failed our edge test.
Components sum to 54; capped to 50 by a tier rule (no PRESS without external sharp confirmation, or the biggest-edge fade).
Weights: EV 45 · Sharp 25 · Consensus 20 · Confidence 10 · Kill signals -12 each. Clamped 0-100. Tiers: 90+ PRESS, 75-89 STRONG, 60-74 LEAN, 50-59 WATCH, <50 PASS.
Note: the Sharp component only credits an external anchor (Kalshi / Polymarket), which player props do not have, so a prop scores 0 of 25 there no matter how good it is. That is a known flaw in this version of the score, not a judgement about this play. Read the Confidence panel above for the number that actually grades this card against its price.
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.