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Run Line · TB · @ CLE · Rays at Guardians
This is a favorite the slate itself flagged (weather, injury, or workload). Per the playbook, favorites carrying their own caveat went 0-3 while a clean high favorite cashed the same nights, so it is capped to LEAN. Size it to 0.5u at most, and never anchor a parlay with it.
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK★ Best | -1.5 | -1101.91 | -1101.91 |
This scores 0 because the price is longer than our probability, so there is no expected value, no external sharp book (Kalshi / Polymarket) backs this side, it failed our edge test, and 1 kill signal subtracted 12. Nothing here is an argument for the bet.
Weights: EV 45 · Sharp 25 · Consensus 20 · Confidence 10 · Kill signals -12 each. Clamped 0-100. Tiers: 90+ PRESS, 75-89 STRONG, 60-74 LEAN, 50-59 WATCH, <50 PASS.
Note: the Sharp component only credits an external anchor (Kalshi / Polymarket), which player props do not have, so a prop scores 0 of 25 there no matter how good it is. That is a known flaw in this version of the score, not a judgement about this play. Read the Confidence panel above for the number that actually grades this card against its price.
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.