LEGEND
Reading the board.
How to read it
Every colour and badge here has a fixed meaning and a mandatory cue glyph, so none of it depends on seeing hue. No marketing colours, no decoration. Here is the whole vocabulary.
Every colour and badge here has a fixed meaning and a mandatory cue glyph, so none of it depends on seeing hue. No marketing colours, no decoration. Here is the whole vocabulary.
Reading the board
What every colour and cue meansTier · how much to trust the card
PRESSExternal sharp confirms our side, edge passes CONSENSUS, EV is real. Press.
STRONGTwo of three confirm: sharp anchor, model edge, edge test. Standard unit.
LEANOne confirm. Half unit. Optional.
WATCHEdge exists but only our internal model anchors it. No external sharp confirm. Track for movement.
PASSNo edge or price-locked. Skip.
Side · which way to bet
↑ OVER / ↓ UNDER · always neutral
The arrow shows the direction. Which way to bet is a fact, not a verdict, so it never carries a colour.
Signal · colour plus a mandatory cue
STRONGClears the price. Positive edge, positive EV, and form above the breakeven the odds demand.
LEANClears, but thinly. One confirm, or an edge inside the error bars. Smaller stake.
FENCEOn the fence. Priced close to fair, so there is nothing to take either way.
AVOIDFails the price. Negative edge, or a kill signal fired. The number moved through the gate.
DEADKilled, or not modelled. Logged rather than hidden, so the kill count ships with the slate.
LIVEThe game is in progress. A state of the game, not a claim about our data: nothing here streams, and every published card was priced pre-tip.
Emphasis · what is ours
White is our number
Our projection, the model probability, the stake. Set in white against steel body copy, so emphasis comes from weight rather than from a hue.
Steel is metadata
Sample windows, weighting, roles. Facts about the number rather than the number.
There is no orange
Not as an accent, not as a signal, not in a chart series. Orange belongs to Bounce Design Lab, the bags arm, and a build-time test fails on any colour close enough to it to be mistaken for it.
Badges · the small text on each card
CONSENSUSClears playbook gate: line + diff% + raw diff thresholds. Only fires when external sharp confirms.
LIVEGame is in progress right now. Our published card was priced pre-tip.
FINALGame ended. Card has been graded or is queued for grading the next morning.
Model 53%Our model's probability of winning. Internal Log5 baseline; external sharp anchors are labeled with their source (Kalshi, Polymarket).
Sharp 61% OThe external sharp anchor's implied probability of the OVER hitting, or P(home) on moneylines.
K 1.25uFull Kelly sizing for your bankroll. Multiply by 0.25 for the quarter-Kelly recommended exposure.
A few principles
- Tier is honest about confidence. A PRESS requires external sharp confirmation. Our internal model alone never produces a PRESS, no matter how big the edge looks. It caps at WATCH until the market quotes.
- Green is good for you, red is not. Green clears the price. Red fails it, or a kill switch fired. If you are holding a card that has gone red, read the kill signal before first pitch.
- Colour is never the only channel. Each of the six signal states carries a glyph as well as a hue: STRONG, LEAN, FENCE, AVOID, DEAD, LIVE. Read the board in greyscale, print it, or read it colour blind and nothing is lost.
- White means "ours." The palette is monochrome, so the emphasis slot is white rather than a brand hue: our projection, our probability, the stake. There is no orange anywhere in the product, because orange belongs to Bounce Design Lab.
- Kelly is conservative. The Kelly we publish is full Kelly capped at 5% of bankroll. The recommended exposure is quarter-Kelly: multiply by 0.25. For most users that is 0.05u to 1u per card.