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NFL · SEA @ DEN · 8:15 PM ET·
Bo Nix
Rush Attempts 4.5 · DEN · vs SEA · Seahawks at BroncosEvery Bo Nix market tonight →
PASS
OVER
4.5
UNDER
4.5
Our win %
52%
Market %
56%
Diff
+4.7%
Market
Rush Attempts 4.5
DK
-148
1.68
Projection4.3vs4.5(+5%)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
SZN
52%
12/23
H2H
-
ACC
-
ACC needs 20 settled cards in this card's own (sport, market, side) bucket before it reports a rate. Below that it stays a dash rather than publish noise.
Edge
-4.5pp
EV
-13.6%
Alpha Score
17
Recommended
0.00u
PASSWATCHLEANSTRONGPRESS
AB 6-10 on Nix
Best lineBuy up to 5: an exact 5 returns your stake (7% push)
Why this card
- ›Rush Attempts projection 4.3 vs line 4.5
- ›Edge test fails: books are not quoting the same number, so there is no single line to price against.
- ›Prop market fair P(under) 56% across 2 books
- ›Baby line: 4.5 is below the 8 floor for Rush Attempts. Opportunity bet, capped at LEAN.
KILL SIGNALS
- ⚠ baby line
Sharp anchor
SourceDe-vigged book market
Implied P(under 4.5)56.1%
Fair price+128 · 2.28
Books de-vigged2
Pulled10/15, 6:51 PM ET
Fair value is the mean of 2 independent two-sided de-vigs. Reference books (BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, reduced-juice) count toward this number but can never set the price above, which comes from a Connecticut book only.
Our projection
Projection vs line4.29 vs 4.5
Sourcegamelog
SportNFL
Games23
Current games5
Prior games18
Prior games fetched18
All model inputs (19)
Variance3.50
Modelgamelog-v0.1-generic
Pricingpx-shared-v2+logistic-normal-v1
sourcegamelog
modelgeneric-recency-blend
sportNFL
propRUSH_ATTEMPTS
games23
current_games5
prior_games18
prior_games_fetched18
current_mean3.60
prior_mean5.28
current_weight0.560
role_shift0
variance_floor3.50
opp_adj1
player_espn_id4426338
season2026
Market lines
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK★ Best | 4.5 | +1162.16 | -1481.68 |
DK implied, with vig (this side): 59.7%
Confidence readPrice too short
52% to hitrange 44-59%price needs 60%
Even at the high end of our projection the price is too short. No range of our number makes this pay.
The band is our projection's standard error run through the same model that sets this card's win probability, so it shows how much the number could move if our read on the player's mean is off. The tick is what -148 has to beat to profit. We grade against that instead of a threshold we invented.
◆ ALPHA SCORE BREAKDOWN
Why 17?
TOTAL
17/100
Win prob+19.7/ 55
Calibrated win probability 52%
Market+15/ 15
Market consensus 56% on our side
Price+-10/ 15
Negative EV at best price - juice eats the edge
Edge test+0/ 15
Edge test failed
Kill penalty-8/ 0
1 kill signal firing (graduated)
Prop weights: calibrated win probability 55 · market consensus 15 · price 15 · edge test 15 · kill signals -8 then -5 each. Clamped 0-100. Tiers: 90+ PRESS, 75-89 STRONG, 60-74 LEAN, 50-59 WATCH, <50 PASS.
◆ ALT-LINE LADDER
Bo Nix · Under the number
The best move
Buy this under up to 5: an exact 5 returns your stake instead of losing (7% of outcomes), same win chance as the 4.5.
| Line | Win | Push | Loss | Price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 30% | - | 70% | +230 fair | - |
| 3.5 | 44% | - | 56% | +127 fair | - |
| 4 | 44% | 7% | 48% | +110 fair | - |
| 4.5now | 52% | - | 48% | -148 | -13.6% |
| 5push-safe | 52% | 7% | 41% | -126 fair | - |
| 5.5 | 59% | - | 41% | -143 fair | - |
| 7.5 | 72% | - | 28% | -260 fair | - |
Win / push / loss come from our projected distribution. A whole-number line can push - an exact landing returns your stake - so buying to the whole number nearest our projection converts a slice of losses into stake-back. EV is shown only where a book actually quotes that line; other rungs show the model's fair price.
Best EV is the highest-value rung inside the trustworthy band. Tighten is the safest rung that stays +EV, for when a leg needs to survive rather than pay big. EV is our model's edge at the price a book actually quotes. Which rungs we trustis now de-vigged: we measure the book's margin on the two-sided main line (its vig-free read is 56% our side there) and strip that same margin off each one-sided rung. A losing-side rung is shown only when the book's own de-vigged price backs the model up, so a longshot can no longer post a phantom edge built on the model's fat tail. EV in (parentheses)is a rung where the model claims far more than the book's de-vigged number: indicative only, never a recommendation.
★ RECENT FORM
Bo Nix · Rush Attempts vs 4.5
LAST 5
80%
4/5 under · avg 3.6
LAST 10
80%
4/5 under · avg 3.6
SEASON
80%
4/5 under · avg 3.6
Cells scored against the Under, the side this card is on. At -148 the price needs 60% to break even: green clears it with room, red falls short. A high hit rate at heavy juice is not an edge, which is why we grade against the price and not a round number.
Game log
Bo Nix · Rush Attempts vs 4.5
80% 4/5 under
- Oct 11@LACW4Hit
- Oct 4@SFL2Hit
- Sep 28vsLARW4Hit
- Sep 20vsJAXW5Miss
- Sep 15@KCL3Hit
- Jan 17vsBUFW12Miss
- Jan 4vsLACW8Miss
- Dec 26@KCW9Miss
- Dec 21vsJAXL4Hit
- Dec 14vsGBW7Miss
- Dec 7@LVW3Hit
- Dec 1@WSHW2Hit
- Nov 16vsKCW3Hit
- Nov 7vsLVW5Miss
- Nov 2@HOUW3Hit
- Oct 26vsDALW1Hit
- Oct 19vsNYGW5Miss
- Oct 12@NYJW5Miss
- Oct 5@PHIW3Hit
- Sep 30vsCINW6Miss
- Sep 21@LACL8Miss
- Sep 14@INDL3Hit
- Sep 7vsTENW8Miss
The five most recent games with a readable stat line. Dimmed rows are outside the selected window, not excluded from the record. Hit and miss are scored against 4.5, this card's line, so the same game can be a hit here and a miss on a different rung. The price needs 60% to break even, which is the bar these percentages have to clear.
Team form
ESPN standings · L10 / streak / splitsAWAYSEA
3-2L103-2
StreakL1
Road0-0
Run diff+29.0
HOMEDEN
3-2L103-2
StreakW1
Home0-0
Run diff-14.0
Recent form is context, not signal. A team on a heater can still be the wrong side of the number. Cross-check with the projection above.
Line history
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Injuries
From ESPN · refreshed every 30 minSEA
Out · 3
- Chazz SurrattOUTSurratt (calf) has been ruled out for Thursday night's contest against the Broncos, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
- Drake ThomasOUTThomas (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday night's game against the Broncos, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
- Zach CharbonnetOUTCharbonnet (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game at Denver, Corbin K. Smith of EmeraldCitySpectrum.com reports.
Other · 22
- Tyrice Knight?Knight will start in Thursday's game against the Broncos, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.
- Leonard Williams?
- Drew Lock?Lock (forearm) won't carry an injury designation into Thursday night's matchup with Denver, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba?Smith-Njigba (ankle) practiced fully Wednesday and doesn't have a designation for Thursday's game in Denver, Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13 Seattle reports.
- Cooper Kupp?Kupp caught two of three passes for 15 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
- Beau Stephens?
- George Holani?Holani rushed four times for seven yards and lost a fumble while reeling in all four of his targets for 24 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
- Tory Horton?Horton did not draw any targets during Sunday's 32-29 loss versus the 49ers.
- Rashid Shaheed?Shaheed caught two of four targets for 23 yards while also adding 86 kickoff-return yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers.
- AJ Barner?Barner caught three of five targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 32-29 loss versus the 49ers.
- Nick Kallerup?
- Montorie Foster Jr.?
- Robert Henry Jr.?
- Jalen Milroe?
- Jason Myers?Myers made all seven of his kicks (five field goals, two extra points) during the Seahawks' 32-29 loss to the 49ers on Sunday.
- Sam Darnold?Darnold completed 18 of 29 passes for 195 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He added one rushing attempt for five yards.
- Emanuel Wilson?Wilson rushed 20 times for 61 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 32-29 loss to the 49ers. He also caught both of his targets for 11 yards and lost a fumble.
- Julian Neal?The Seahawks placed Neal (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.
- Nehemiah Pritchett?
- Ty Okada?Okada (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.
- Nick Emmanwori?Emmanwori registered nine total tackles (eight solo), including 1.0 sacks, and added a pass defensed during Sunday's 30-23 win over the Chargers.
- Ernest Jones IV?Jones recorded 12 total tackles (six solo), including 1.0 sacks, and added an interception during Sunday's 30-23 win over the Chargers.
DEN
Out · 2
- Pat Surtain IIOUTSurtain (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Seahawks.
- Talanoa HufangaOUTHufanga (ankle) is expected to miss multiple weeks due to the injury he sustained in Sunday's 23-17 win over the Chargers, Jeremy Fowler and Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com report.
Questionable / DTD · 1
- Riley MossQMoss (ribs) is listed as questionable for Thursday's game against the Seahawks.
Other · 22
- Evan Engram?Engram caught all four of his targets for 55 yards during the Broncos' 23-17 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
- Sai'vion Jones?
- Dallen Bentley?
- Sam Ehlinger?
- Kage Casey?
- Tyler Onyedim?
- Jordan Jackson?
- Wil Lutz?Lutz went 3-for-4 on field-goal attempts and connected on both of his extra-point tries during the Broncos' 23-17 win over the Chargers on Sunday.
- Courtland Sutton?Sutton posted two catches (on three targets) for 18 yards and one touchdown during Sunday's 23-17 victory at the Chargers.
- RJ Harvey?Harvey notched three carries for seven yards and didn't haul in his only target during Sunday's 23-17 road win versus the Chargers.
- Jaylen Waddle?Waddle corralled two of five targets for 19 yards and also had a nine-yard carry during Sunday's 23-17 road win against the Chargers.
- Bo Nix?Nix was 16-for-27 passing for 123 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, took four carries for 10 yards and fumbled twice (one lost) during Sunday's 23-17 victory at the Chargers.
- J.K. Dobbins?Dobbins recorded 18 carries for 68 yards and one touchdown and gathered in both targets for six yards during Sunday's 23-17 win at the Chargers.
- Lil'Jordan Humphrey?The Broncos signed Humphrey off the practice squad to the active roster Friday.
- Pat Bryant?Bryant (ankle) was placed on the Broncos' injured reserve Friday.
- Dondrea Tillman?Tillman (hamstring) was a full participant in Thursday's practice, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
- Adam Trautman?
- Alex Singleton?Singleton recorded 14 total tackles (seven solo) during Sunday's 24-14 loss to San Francisco.
- Tyler Badie?Badie carried twice for seven yards, caught both of his targets for 32 yards, ran in a two-point conversion and returned one kickoff for 21 yards in a loss to San Francisco in Week 4.
- Adam Prentice?The Broncos signed Prentice from their practice squad to their 53-man roster Saturday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.
- Brandon Jones?Jones posted 12 tackles (10 solo) and one pass defense during the Broncos' 30-26 win over the Rams on Sunday.
- Marvin Mims Jr.?Mims (foot) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
Alpha Score breakdown
EDGE TESTFAILS
TierPASS
Kelly fraction (full)0.00u
Quarter Kelly (recommended)0.00u
EV %-13.6%
Edge %-4.5pp
Card ID: c-401872995-BoNix-RUSH_ATTEMPTSPublished 10/15/2026, 10:51:12 PM