Positive expected value.
How edges are found
Every card ranked by the gap between our fair probability and the book's implied. A positive gap = the book is under-pricing our side, i.e. positive expected value. Negative gap = the book is over-pricing it, a fade. Independent from Alpha Score - this is pure prediction-market divergence.
Every card ranked by the gap between our fair probability and the book's implied. A positive gap = the book is under-pricing our side, i.e. positive expected value. Negative gap = the book is over-pricing it, a fade. Independent from Alpha Score - this is pure prediction-market divergence.
Model-free value, from line shopping.
How line shopping works
When several books quote the same prop, their de-vigged average is the market's own fair price. Rows below are props where the best posted price beats that fair, positive expected value with no model opinion involved. Grab the price before it moves.
When several books quote the same prop, their de-vigged average is the market's own fair price. Rows below are props where the best posted price beats that fair, positive expected value with no model opinion involved. Grab the price before it moves.
| PLAY | GAME | BEST PRICE | MARKET FAIR | BOOKS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker · Walks OVER 0.5 | MLB · MIL @ LAD | +155 FANATICS | +153 | 2 | +1.0% |
“Our fair” is the model's de-vigged win probability on the side of the card. “Market implied” comes from DK's best posted price. The gap is percentage points, not percent. A play at 60% ours vs 52.4% market is a +7.6pp gap.